It happens every year. The models suggest, merely suggest, the season’s first snowflakes and we weather folks go nuts. Am I included in this madness? Of course! (ha) You’ll probably hear it from somewhere else (if you haven’t already) so I’ll go ahead and say it too. The models are currently suggesting that we may see our first snow showers Saturday night/Sunday. There, I said it. Can this change? Of course it can. The reason confidence is a bit higher with this long range forecast is that the models have been consistent with this for a few days now. Temps at about 3,000 feet up will be super cold on Sunday. Any showers that can form during the day will likely be frozen and not have time to melt before making it to the ground. Highs on Sunday may struggle to even reach the lower 40s, but we will be above freezing, so no accumulation is expected. This is all several days away and so I’ll have to keep an excited eye on it. 🙂
Meanwhile, today we can expect some clouds from time to time and we may even see some showers from these clouds by this afternoon. They will be cool showers, with highs only in the mid 50s. Tonight, we drop into the 30s and depending on how many of these clouds stick around, we may drop to near freezing. The Smokies will see their first snow flakes tonight and they may even see a dusting of snow from these flakes. Wednesday and Thursday look mostly sunny. Wednesday will be very cool, with highs in the mid 40s. Wednesday night we drop to near freezing but light south winds kicking in near daybreak may save us from a freeze. It’ll be a close call, though. Those south winds kick in some warm air for us on Thursday ahead of our next storm system. Rain showers move in by Friday evening, with highs in the lower 60s. Enjoy those warm temps because they’re not going to stick around. Saturday looks rainy and cold, with highs in the 40s. Saturday night we drop into the lower 30s and any left over rain could turn to snow showers. Those snow showers/flurries may linger into Sunday. Skies should clear Sunday night and temps will drop into the 20s.
Now that I’ve mentioned the “s” word, I figure now is as good a time as any to share with you the article I wrote for the Fentress Courier last week about snows on Halloween. That day is only a week away, you know? I hope you enjoy the article!
As far as the weather goes, October is one of the quietest months of the year for us here on the Cumberland Plateau. It’s certainly one of the driest months of the year. It’s easy for us weather folks to get bored this time of year! In other words, when we think of frightening things in October, the weather is not one of them!
You can imagine my surprise when I was recently looking at some records for October and found that Tennessee’s earliest tornado to be officially recorded by the National Weather Service occurred on October 12, 1811. That tornado ripped through parts of Nashville with a wind like residents there had never seen before, according to archived newspaper reports. Miraculously, there were no reported fatalities.
Growing up around here I can’t think of any big severe weather events in October. I think the craziest October weather many of us can remember occurred a few years ago on Halloween of 2014. That’s when the plateau was covered with 1-2 inches of snow. There’s all kinds of songs and poems on Christmas snows, but you’d be hard pressed to find even one about a white Halloween.
Some of you may remember Halloween of 1991 when we got snow. I remember because the kids couldn’t trick or treat because it was too cold and snowy to get out! I was a kid then and I’ll never forget the snow melting on the jack-o-lanterns and putting out the candle inside.
We all know the weather on this plateau can be quite interesting, to say the least. But when songs about the weather outside being frightful, and fires being so delightful can be sung about certain Halloweens around here, well, that’s even weird for us.