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An ever-changing fall forecast

The big weather headline for this week is the cold front coming Saturday. More on that in just  a bit.

First, we have a cold front that will move though tonight. It’s not especially strong, but it will bring a chance for showers. The best chances for rain will stay well north of us. Highs today, under partly to mostly cloudy skies, will reach into the mid 50s. Tonight, with isolated showers, we’ll drop to around 40.  Skies clear out for the rest of the work week, allowing the sunshine to warm us into the low to mid 50s.  Thursday night will be chilly, with lows around 30.

The big headline, though, is the front coming for the weekend. Models are finally in better agreement on this system. With that agreement comes an adjustment in timing. It now looks like Friday will be fine but clouds will be increasing by evening and into the overnight. Winds will be picking up on Friday, as well, and will get downright gusty for Friday night and Saturday. As for severe weather, I don’t think we have to worry about it with this front. It just doesn’t look like we’re going to be able to get enough humid air to fuel big storms. However, it does need to be watched because that is the only ingredient missing and keeping us from getting some really rough storms. The winds will be more than favorable for severe weather, including tornadoes, BUT it just doesn’t look like the fuel is going to be there to get storms really going. That warm, humid air is the fuel for these big storms.  I’ll be monitoring it.

The front clears out Saturday night and temps are going to drop like a rock! Highs Sunday may not even get to 40 degrees here on the Plateau and that’s with sunshine! Sunday night will be our coldest night of the season, with temps dropping to near 20 degrees.  Some folks may dip into the upper teens. That’ll pretty much wipe out anything that has survived our frosts and light freezes up to now.

Thanksgiving week looks chilly. Highs will be in the 40s to start the week, with frosty overnight lows around 30. Another front comes in Wednesday and that could bring in some rain showers. That’s not the best of news, with that day being one of the heaviest traveled days of the year.  I will say this, though, I just looked at some of the model data and it suggests very heavy rain for the Gulf Coastal region for Wednesday, which would tend to rob us of any significant moisture up here. I’ll keep watching it.

We could still see some flurries Thanksgiving with the much colder air that will be moving in, but it’s nothing to get too excited about, at least not by the way things look at this point.

You all have a great day and I’ll be watching this front coming Saturday and the weather for Thanksgiving. If you have any questions, especially concerning a particular travel destination, just let me know!

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