I guess by now you know which way I’m leaning on that Christmas forecast. Our chances of a white Christmas are pretty much shot, per the latest model runs. We’ve yet to see models clearly forecast wintry precip for us for Christmas. It’s still not impossible that we could see flurries, but that’s a long shot, too. I’ll explain more below.
First, we have this week to deal with. We may see a sprinkle today and it will be mostly cloudy. We could see some peaks of the sun this afternoon, but be sure and enjoy it if we do! Tomorrow is cloudy and tomorrow night is downright wet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us pick up a couple inches of rain by noon Wednesday. We may even hear a rumble of thunder or two, though any storms that pop up should stay below severe limits. As the surface low moves over us Wednesday winds will become very breezy, but this time those breezes will be warm and unlike the cold, breezy days we’ve been dealing with over the past couple of weeks.
We get a really nice break Thursday! In fact, it will feel like spring has returned, but enjoy it because those warm temps are coming from the Gulf, which is where our next rain system is coming out of. This system has the potential to bring us very heavy rainfall and more thunderstorms. Friday night looks to be the wettest but Saturday could be very wet too. Rainfall totals once again could top out at 2 inches or more. This is still several days away so stay tuned.
Then, things get less clear. Some models push the cold front through here Saturday night or Sunday. This would bring cooler air to the region and perhaps a flurry or two. Other models want to push the cold front through on Saturday, but quickly bring it back north as a warm front on Sunday, which would bring very heavy rainfall and warm temps to our region Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. If that solution occurs, we could be looking at rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches starting Thursday night and ending Christmas Day (if not more rain than that!). So, stay tuned!
For those of you who like colder weather, there are indications that colder air will return in the days following Christmas (see map below for the 25th through the 31st). Whether or not we get any wintry precip during that time remains to be seen. I’ll be watching it closely!