Update on Friday’s Snow Potential

The NWS has now issued a winter storm watch for the extreme western sections of Middle TN and all of West TN. Up to 1/4 inch of ice, followed by 1-3 inches of snow is possible for those areas. This does not include the city of Nashville. Please be advised that travel is not recommended in these areas for Friday or Saturday. I have the map below showing the watches in the blue-shaded counties.

All the  latest guidance and model data continue to indicate that the greatest impacts from this storm will be over West TN and western Middle TN.  I still think we could see a light glaze of ice as the rain switches over Friday evening. That will be followed by some light snow. Accumulations continue to look to be around 2-4 inches of total snowfall by Sunday morning.  Please note that the timing of this switch over is not set in stone and may change. I should have a better handle on that tomorrow.

I should add that snowfall amounts are trending on the lighter side with today’s data and many of us will probably be closer to the 2″ mark than the 4″ inch mark.  That may change tomorrow, though, so I’ll keep you posted.

Another thing that we’ll have to watch is something we call “Northwest flow” snow. That’s when winds switch to the northwest and hit the plateau at a 90-degree angle (the plateau is oriented southwest to northeast). That is the best angle to get air to rise and produce snow. This creates an ideal scenario for light snow across the plateau.  We should see this light snowfall throughout the day Saturday and it could add another inch or two to our total.

I’ll keep an eye on things, as usual. Let me know if you have any questions.  I’ll be updating tomorrow and will pass along any watches or advisories that may be issued through the day. Stay tuned!

I will conclude with saying this…Just because the rest of Middle TN isn’t under this watch does NOT mean the watch won’t be expanded eastward tomorrow. Impacts from this system will be felt, to varying degrees, all across Middle TN by Saturday. If you have travel plans that take you west on Friday or this weekend, please be advised that travel could be quite hazardous.  Travel across the plateau will also be adversely affected, though those impacts may hold off until Friday evening for us.

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