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Weekend Update

Some folks didn’t get the email with the blog attached this morning, so I’m re-sending it.

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SUMMARY

I hope you’re having a wonderful weekend! As you can see by looking outside, the clouds have arrived. I have seen some breaks in the clouds, though, so a peak of sun isn’t completely out of the question. Rain is developing to our west and southwest and that will move in later today, mostly in the overnight hours. If you have any outdoor plans I would try to have them complete by this afternoon. Showers will move in ahead of the main rain band and that could get you a bit wet if caught outside. Rain tapers off on Sunday and should be out of here by early to mid afternoon. Colder air filters in behind the front and another disturbance will bring a chance for flurries or light snow Monday evening and overnight.

DISCUSSION

As for tonight’s rain, it still looks like we’ll be accumulating about one half inch of rain across the plateau. Some places could see up to an inch, but I think the one-half inch amounts will be more common. There still doesn’t look to be enough instability for thunder, so we’ll just look for a light, steady rain.

Once the front passes Sunday morning, temperatures will begin to fall. This isn’t an arctic front but it will certainly make things feel more like January. That disturbance that we expect to drop in from the north on Monday evening looks a bit more potent on this morning’s model runs. I almost added light snow to Monday night’s forecast but I’ll hold off until more data comes in. These northern systems are tricky, as you all know. If future model runs and additional guidance continue to show a strong disturbance I may have to change that part of the forecast to snow showers/light snow with up to 1/4″ of accumulation. Frankly, I still think the bulk of the energy will stay in Kentucky, but that’s too close for comfort and it only takes a little dab of snow to make for a travel headache across this plateau.

After that, we have some pretty good looking weather in store for Wednesday before our next storm system gets ready to move in on Thursday. Rain will begin with this system but there’s a chance it could end as a light wintry mix or light snow Friday morning. Confidence is extremely low in that extended forecast, so stay tuned.

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