Posted on Leave a comment

A few snow flakes tonight?

Picture5

SUMMARY

Our weather has taken a turn toward the wintry side of things again. You wouldn’t know it by looking outside this beautiful morning, but there’s another system on the way for this evening that will bring a chance of wintry precip and gusty winds. We should see some rain showers first and, as temps fall tonight, any left over moisture will turn to snow flakes. Accumulations, if any, will be quite light, averaging around a dusting or so. Still, be careful if you’re out and about Tuesday morning and be mindful of any icy patches on the roads or sidewalks. We should see the sun break out on Tuesday, though temps will be a bit cooler in the wake of this system moving through tonight. Yet another rain maker arrives Thursday, with a possible transition to light snow to end that event Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Tonight’s system looks so weak right now. However, upper level dynamics may become a bit more favorable later this evening for the system to strengthen a bit. The best dynamics will stay in Kentucky, where more snow is expected. Winter weather advisories have been issued for parts of southeast KY, as well as the Smoky Mountains of East Tennessee, for 1-3 inches of snow.

Picture3

As you can see below, our system for this evening currently looks quite weak. This is the radar image from 8:45 a.m. today. The system is moving east, southeast.

Picture4

Clouds and winds will be on the increase as we go through this afternoon. Winds could gusts as high as 25 or 30 mph, so be aware of that. Those gusty winds and cloudy skies will make it feel cooler than the 45 degrees we should reach later today. We’re currently 39, so we’re well on our way to that 45 degree high temperature. Clouds will slow the warming process.

I’ll be monitoring this system through the day and will advise you if anything changes. Currently, we have no watches or advisories in place and I wouldn’t be surprised if none are issued.

Yet another trouble maker arrives Thursday. Most of this event should be in the form of rain, but some models are suggesting that we could see a transition to light snow Thursday night. I’m not convinced yet, so I left off any yellow cautions on the 5-day outlook. It does need to watched, though, and that’s just what I’ll be doing.

Yet another system arrives Sunday and it looks the most promising to me right now for an accumulating snowfall for us. Of course, it’s way to early to talk about that, so we’ll just keep it in the back of our minds for now. A LOT can and probably will change with that system between now and then.

I have attached a couple model images below for tonight’s system. As you can see, any accumulation will be light (if any). It should be noted that models may be under performing a bit on the snowfall accumulation. When we have gusty northwest winds striking the plateau, they can sometimes enhance the rising motion of the air, bringing us more snowflakes. Right now, the moisture looks too limited for us to get much out of that process, so we’ll still say up to a dusting of accumulation. If the system can pull in more moisture, that accumulation forecast would move up to 1/4 to 1/2″. I’ll keep an eye on that.

 

You all have a great day and I’ll update you if anything changes with tonight’s system.

Today is my dad’s birthday so I will wish him a very happy birthday!

 

Leave a Reply