SUMMARY
We’re in a very progressive weather pattern. That just means things keep moving along. Earlier this winter we kept getting trapped in situations where the arctic air just parked itself here and didn’t’ want to leave. Now, systems are just visiting us and then moving right along, thanks for a very active jet stream. Today, we are under the influence of a Canadian air mass (thank goodness it’s not arctic!), so we’ll be in the mid 30s by afternoon, with some sunshine. Warm air begins moving in by daybreak Wednesday and we’ll have a very nice day! That’s the calm before the next system rolls in Thursday, bringing rain during the day and light snow during the night. Light accumulations are possible Thursday night (generally around 1/2″). Friday looks cooler with some sun, before the next system rolls in Saturday, with a mix of precip by Saturday night and Sunday.
DISCUSSION
I’m just going to be honest with you. Sometimes I talk to myself in the car. For instance, as I was driving through town last evening, when it was absolutely pouring down the snow, I was saying to myself, “Make this stop. Make this stop.” Yesterday was one of those forecasts where you’re 99% sure we’re not going to get much snow, but then it starts snowing like a Minnesota blizzard and that 1% of uncertainly starts screaming, “What have you done!!??” But, alas, the snow stopped (whew!). If that band of snow had gotten hung up on the plateau and it had snowed like that for a few hours, we’d be digging out this morning! ha
Today’s cold snap is short-lived and Wednesday is looking very nice. It will be the last really nice day for a while, so be sure and try to enjoy it. The only problem may be that winds may get a bit gusty. I may have to add my “wind-blown tree” to tomorrow’s forecast (ha). Humidity will be really low tomorrow, too, so don’t be burning any brush or anything tomorrow. The next system comes rolling in on Thursday and it looks like we’ll get some more snowflakes out of it. I don’t foresee a big snow, by any means, but amounts will depend on how quickly the moisture moves out when the cold air starts moving in. I feel confident, at this point, that the most we could hope to get would be one inch. We may just end up with something like we got last night. Stay tuned.
Friday looks pretty good, although it will be cold, before the next system rolls in here for Saturday. This one is a headache. Looking at the models and all available guidance this morning, I think this has the potential to actually give us some decent accumulation. That being said, it is still several days out and a lot can change. I went ahead and put a caution on Saturday night, due to my confidence being a bit higher than normal for that far out. Things will likely not improve on Sunday, as a clipper system from the north drops in with more light snow possible into Sunday night. Definitely stay tuned for this part of the forecast, especially if you have travel plans for the weekend.
I had promised on Friday that I would tell you about a big weather event that occurred here the last week of January of 1951. There’s been so much going on I haven’t had the space here. But, I will try to tell you a bit each day this week. Just to catch you up, during the afternoon of January 28, 1951 a cold front moved across Middle TN. The front passed through Nashville at around 1:00 pm and reached the plateau by that evening. It was an arctic front, so temps dropped fast and hard. By that evening, a freezing drizzle had settled in across the mid-state. This freezing drizzle increased in intensity to light freezing rain, and by the night of the 29th of January, Middle TN was paralyzed by the worst ice storm in TN history. Some places had nearly 2″ of ice. That was horrific, especially for the city of Nashville. On January 30th the weather gave folks a break, but it would be a short-lived break.
The worst was yet to come.
I’ll have more on that tomorrow!
You all have a great day and stay warm! I’ll keep you posted on the Thursday night snow chances, as well as this weekend’s!