A forecast fit for a snowbird

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SUMMARY

Expect breezy conditions today, with some gusts possibly getting as high as 30 mph by this evening. Below normal rainfall, low humidity levels, and these gusty winds will create ideal fire conditions today, so outside burning is strongly discouraged. These winds are blowing ahead of our next storm system, which will arrive on Thursday. Rain should begin around noon. A cold front will drop in from the northwest during the afternoon and temps will begin to fall. Rain should be mixing with snow by 5:00 p.m. and will have turned to all snow by 8:00 p.m. (stay tuned for timing changes).  Accumulation should be on the light side, with less than one inch of snow expected at this time.  We get a break on Friday before the next system moves in Saturday night. This system will also bring a wintry mix of precip, with wet snow possibly accumulating by Sunday morning across the plateau. The mix of precip continues Sunday and Sunday night with additional accumulations possible. This system has the potential to significantly impact travel Saturday night and Sunday, as well as cause disruptions to electricity.  Stay tuned.

DISCUSSION

Before our weather gets too wild, we have today to enjoy! The only “fly in the ointment”, so to speak, will be these darn winds. If it weren’t for the wind, today would be ideal. But, it is what it is. Tomorrow, rain moves in and I’ll be tracking a cold front as it moves across the plateau during the afternoon. The best set-up for rain will come behind the front but temps will be slow to drop. How much snow we get all depends on how quickly the colder air can turn the rain to snow and how much moisture will then be left. Right now, I’m thinking that by the time all the rain transitions to snow and surface temps drop to freezing, most of the moisture will be gone. However, we could still squeeze out a half inch to possibly an inch. An inch would be the maximum amount possible, as it stands right now.

We get a break Friday, so that I can figure out what the weather is going to do Saturday night (ha). This one is a head scratcher, folks. The biggest conundrum is our temps. Without arctic air in place, it’s more difficult to say if temps will be cold enough for snow. We keep getting these hits of polar air, which isn’t nearly as cold as arctic air. Never the less, I think the precip coming in Saturday night will most certainly not be all liquid. In fact, there are several indications that we will be dealing with a very wet snow Saturday night and Sunday morning.  However, there is a very fine line between wet snow and cold rain and determining which precipitation form will dominate is very difficult.

I should note that wet snow is very heavy and can cause power outages. Just keep that in mind, especially if you or someone you know relies on electricity for heat or for oxygen tanks, etc. Just keep that in mind. It never hurts to be prepared for a power outage so you have nothing to lose in taking steps to prepare for that. I’m not sure we’ll see enough snow for that to be a problem, but there’s too much uncertainty in that forecast to say for sure.

During the day Sunday, we should see a rain/snow mix, with no additional accumulation. However, by Sunday night temps drop into the mid 20s and we should see some more light snow with light accumulations possible once again.  I’ll have more specifics on this later.

This wintry madness continues into next week, with more off-and-on rain and snow chances. Stay tuned.

At least temps these cold temps are bearable. The coldest night will be Friday night, but it’s still nothing compared to what we saw earlier this winter.

Just stay tuned and I’ll keep you posted on all this winter craziness. I can promise you this….I won’t be bored anytime soon! (ha)

So, yesterday I was telling you about the worst winter storm to ever strike  middle TN, especially around the Nashville area. When I left off yesterday, all of Middle TN was buried under nearly 2″ of ice, crippling the mid-state. Just to recap, the cold front moved through the 28th, followed by freezing drizzle that transitioned to freezing rain by the 29th.  By the morning of the 30th, middle TN was a big ice storm mess. We got a break on the 30th that lasted until the 31st. Then all heck broke loose.

Another winter storm moved in.

Freezing rain began falling during the afternoon and picked up in intensity by that evening across Middle TN.  The freezing rain eventually transitioned to extremely heavy wet snow in Nashville later in the evening.  The equivalent of 4″ of liquid precip fell this day! My midnight, about 5 inches of additional ice and snow blanketed Nashville. This was as heavy of a wet snow as you can possibly get. Now, you remember our ice storm in February of 2015? We had about 1.5″ of ice, which is still about a half inch less than this 1951 storm dropped on Nashville on the 29th. Now, imagine if that ice had stayed around for a couple of days and then had more ice and the wettest snow possible dropped on top of it. It’s no wonder that there are newspaper accounts of folks who said there wasn’t a tree or powerpole left standing in Nashville when this was over.

And then the first day of February arrived.

And things got even worse.

I’ll have more on that tomorrow!

You all have a great day and enjoy the sunshine! I’ll keep you posted on Thursday night’s snow potential and will let you know if/when advisories are issued or are about to be issued. Stay tuned!

 

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