Happy Groundhog Day

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SUMMARY

It’s going to be a sunny but cold Groundhog Day on the plateau. Highs will likely not get out of the 20s today. That will make for a cold Friday night, for sure.  Tomorrow, we climb to near 40, if not slightly above, before our next system moves in Saturday night.  This system has the potential to produce a wintry mix of precip across the area, with little impacts expected at this time. However, with temps flirting with the freezing mark, caution is advised if you must travel Saturday night or early Sunday morning. By mid-morning Sunday, all precip will be a cold rain and that rain will persist, off and on, throughout the day. We could see some flurries Sunday night but it’s unlikely that we would see any accumulation (dusting?). Better weather returns for Monday, before another rain maker arrives sometime Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Today, we will see lots of sunshine but it wont’ do much to warm us up. It will be a cold day and one of the colder days we’ve seen lately. Our next system moves in tomorrow night, and it’s causing some of us some headaches. At this time, I don’t foresee any big impacts from the system. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some wet snow flakes mixing in with the rain, and perhaps even some minor accumulation north of I-40, before it all changes to plain ole rain by mid-morning Sunday, if not sooner.  A strong southerly flow should kick in and move out the cold air before the precip really gets going. However, if the precip speeds up we would be looking at a longer period of a rain/snow mix or even all snow at the onset of precip. Notice the temp Saturday night is expected to stay just above freezing. If that drops a degree or two, we’ll be looking at some possible travel issues Saturday night.

At this time, I still think anyone south of I-40 will just be seeing plain rain with this system Saturday night, although wet snow flakes could certainly mix in. Between I-40 and Jamestown there could be a prolonged period of a rain/snow mix but with little to no accumulation. The best chance of any accumulation would be from Jamestown and points north and east of there. Still, impacts should be low as the mix or snow changes to plain rain Sunday morning.

Stay tuned for any updates. I will be updating this all weekend at https://meteorologistmark.com/

We get another break Monday before the next system moves in Tuesday. That will be a much warmer system and could even bring us some heavy rain and thunderstorms by Tuesday night. I’ll focus more on that system after we get rid of the Saturday night system.

Switching gears.

I’ve been telling you all about this horrific winter storm that hit Middle TN in 1951. The worst winter storm in Tennessee’s history, as a matter of fact. When we left off yesterday it was Feb. 1, 1951 and Middle TN, especially Nashville, was buried under 2+” of ice and 10″ of snow.  This all started on January 29 and now we’re up to the morning of February 3rd.

Now, record cold has set in behind the winter storms. Nashville drops to -13 degrees.  What makes this so incredibly bad is that now people are running out of heating fuel, especially within the city of Nashville. Trains are stopped. Airlines are stopped. Roads are impassible from ice, snow, fallen trees, and snapped power poles. Roofs begin collapsing on homes and business from the incredible weight of the ice and snow. Hundreds of vehicles are abandoned across the city of Nashville. Businesses are closed for the third day in a row.

Now, in 1951 February 2nd came on a Friday, just like this year. Which means today was Groundhog Day. I’ll tell you one thing, that groundhog wasn’t coming up to see his shadow on this day! There’s no way he could have come up from all that snow and ice! (ha)

So, today is a Friday and folks are running out of heating fuels, etc. Thankfully, the weekend is here and they don’t have to worry about getting to work, etc. But, they do have a natural disaster on their hands. To make matters worse, there are fears of flooding, due to all the precipitation that has fallen. They can see that the rivers are rising and coming over their banks.

Things are bad and this thing isn’t finished with them yet. On Monday, everyone will try to get to work.

I’ll tell ya how that went on Monday! Hint: Not good.

OH! I almost forgot! The groundhog saw his shadow this morning, for what it’s worth (I’m rolling my eyes). That, of course, would mean six more weeks of winter. Don’t put too much stock in that darn whistlepig, though, he’s only right about a third of the time.  That means I’m still smarter than the whistlepig.  Yep.

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You all have a great day! I’ll keep you updated on the Saturday night system.

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