Hold on to your hats!

Picture5

SUMMARY

Today will be a very breezy, cloudy day, with isolated showers around. I actually saw  piece of blue sky this morning! It was brief, and at first I thought it was my imagination, but I’m pretty sure it was real (ha). It’s not impossible that we could see a peak or two of sun today, but I wouldn’t work too hard looking for it.  If you’re really wanting some sunshine just hold on until Sunday.

Meanwhile, we have a few more cloudy and wet days to get through. Be aware of those gusty winds today. We are not currently under any wind advisories but the NWS has already said that they change. Winds could gust as high as 30-40 mph by this evening. That’s enough to blow your hat off your head! Seriously, with the ground being so saturated we have to be mindful of shallow rooted trees that may come down (hopefully not on power lines).  Temps will drop tomorrow when the front moves through. That should occur before lunch time. The rest of the day and night will be chilly and wet. It doesn’t look like temps will cool down enough for any wintry precip, though, just a cold rain. That cold rain continues, off-and-on, for Saturday. Warmer air returns for Sunday, as well as some much needed sunshine. Yet another rain maker arrives Monday, with the potential for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.

Below is the radar at 8:15, showing a broken line of showers moving east. Another line is developing back along the Mississippi River.

RAD_KHTX_N0R

DISCUSSION

It looks like the rainfall for Friday will be on the lighter side.  Most of the precip will fall behind the cold front, where temps will be quite cool. It looks like most of the rain will move out before temps drop into the mid 30s, but some showers will fall at those temperatures. Even if some of the precip does mix with snow, surface temps will stay above freezing and prevent any problems.

I just have showers on Saturday right now, but I seriously contemplated putting the heavier rain symbol on there. It just depends on how strong the disturbance is when it passes through here. All that clears out Sunday morning and we should see some sun peak through the clouds by Sunday afternoon. Right now, Sunday is looking pretty darn good, folks.

Enjoy it.

Yet another rain system will move in Monday. After that point, I’ll have to keep an eye on strong storm chances and heavy rainfall. Right now, the severe weather threat doesn’t look overly impressive but the heavy rain threat does. So far, the models are keeping the greatest flood potential just to our north, as well as back around West TN.  Never the less, I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up getting several more inches of rain next week, by the time all is said and done.

Remember back when I was complaining that we were below normal on precipitation? Yeah, you can forget I ever said that now (ha).

The Climate Prediction Center issues a hazards map and they keep it updated to keep folks aware of the latest threats.

hazards_d3_7_contours

Notice the hazard on us is heavy rainfall for this weekend and again for early next week. I want you to look northward at Montana and the Dakotas. Notice what their hazard is….bitter cold temperatures and heavy snow. You know what bitter cold air likes to do? It likes to travel. It will be interesting to see where it decides to go next. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if we’re very cold going into March. Notice the much above normal temps for northern Alaska. Interesting.

The dark brown across the southern portion of the country represents severe drought. We pay attention to those soil moisture levels for severe weather season (as well as for crop growing time). Wet soils put more moisture into the air and that moisture is fuel for storms. With dry soil conditions, that moisture is more limited and can limit severe storm potential in the spring.

So, for those of you who are wishing we had snow and colder temps I have a travel destination for you!  Great Falls, Montana is the place you need to be! They are currently under winter storm warnings for some snow today, and this weekend is looking even better for snow! They are, however, under a civil emergency today, due to dangerous cold temps and low visibility from the snow. They’re advising folks not to travel unless it’s an emergency. For those of you who don’t want snow, be thankful this isn’t our forecast!

Picture1

You all have a great day! I have a weather record to share with you tomorrow that’s a doozy! Be sure and check back tomorrow!

Leave a Reply