The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center (2:00 p.m) shows no change to the severe weather outlook for our area. They didn’t upgrade our threat and they didn’t downgrade it either. Still, the greatest threats from these storms will stay west of the plateau and the greatest tornado threat will stay well west of the plateau. The line of storms that we’re watching gather strength this afternoon has moved into western Arkansas and is moving east. There have been severe t-storm warnings and occasional tornado warnings. The tornado threat is increasing out that way at this moment, so warnings are liable to become more common over the next few hours.
Tonight, the line will advance toward us and reach us between about 3-5:00 Sunday morning. This is fortunate for us because this is the most stable time of day and storms should not be able to remain as strong as they are now. It’s unfortunate because many people will be in bed and may not know if a warning is issued.
Are we completely out of the woods? Absolutely not. But this is not a tornado outbreak situation for us, nor is this a widespread severe weather threat for us. That will remain to our west over around Nashville and West Tennessee.
That being said, we are very warm and unstable out there this afternoon. Any storm that does manage to develop today could become quite strong. Just be aware of that if you hear thunder.
I’ll keep an eye on it and I will be here until the threat has passed. Also look for me on Facebook for updates and to ask me any questions (Facebook/thunderchaser).
I do expect us to be placed under a severe t-storm watch or tornado watch later tonight and I’ll pass that information along.
Below is a map showing the tornado potential today (thanks, James Spann for having this). Our chance for tornadoes is very low on the plateau, but it is not zero.
The threat map remains unchanged from this morning’s outlook.
A tornado watch is in effect for Arkansas until 6:00 p.m. Counties in yellow are tornado watch, counties in green are flood watches and warnings. Western Middle Tennessee is under a flood watch but the Cumberland Plateau is not. We are expecting 1-2 inches of rain, which should keep us from having major flooding issues.
There’s a lot of lightning out there this afternoon, indicating a very energized atmosphere. These storms are going to wake you up when they come through here in the morning.
Like I said, I’ll be here watching it all and I’ll give you another update later this evening.