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Another round of snow flakes this morning!

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SUMMARY

We’ve had some pretty darn good snow showers around the plateau this morning! Light snow showers and flurries have pretty much come to an end now. Thankfully, the roads have stayed clear, for the most part. We should still see some sun peak out this afternoon, but it won’t help warm us up much.  By Friday, we should see some morning sun, but another disturbance may bring a shower or sprinkle after noon. Warmer air will be working its way in here, and with that warmer air comes a good chance of rain over the weekend. It still looks like we could see 1-2 inches of total rainfall. That precip could end as some light snow Sunday with minor accumulations possible by Monday morning. Winter hangs on tight for the first half of next week, followed by a slow warming trend the second half of the week.

I took this pic from the yard this morning.

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DISCUSSION

Who knew we’d get more snow showers in March than we did in February? But, March is a weird, weird month and you can get just about anything!

As for the system coming in for this weekend, it looks like the low will track a bit farther south than it looked like it would yesterday. There’s not enough cold air in place for that southern track to give us snow, but it certainly diminishes the possibility of storms on Saturday and Saturday night. We could still hear some thunder, but I certainly don’t see us getting any severe weather.  I’m actually quite surprised that the Weather Channel made such a deal on Tuesday about a tornado potential for Saturday. That was way too early to be making such assumptions, especially with model confidence as low as it has been lately. They’ve since backed off of that, of course.

We are still in for some good rain, though amounts over two inches look less likely. I think we’ll stay closer to the one inch mark, which is good because our streams are full enough as it is, along with a saturated ground.

The bigger question is what does this storm do once it gets to our east? There is enough cold air to our north that when our winds switch to the north behind this low, there will be enough cold air to change the precip to snow. But how much moisture will be left over? We have two models we put a lot of confidence in. One of them says there will be enough moisture left over for a few inches of snow. The other model says there will barely be enough for a flurry. We need these two models to agree before our confidence is high enough to make a confident forecast.

So, for now, I’ll say there’s still a chance of light accumulating snowfall Sunday night. But, there’s an equal chance we’ll see nothing at all. One thing that really complicates things is that when our storm gets east of us, a new storm will be spinning up along the Carolina coast. That new storm will become a nor’easter and track up the East Coast. This scenario happens a lot. The conundrum with the models and with us forecasters is trying to figure out how much moisture the second, new storm will steal from the old storm. Sometimes they take it all, and sometimes they don’t. Hopefully, that forecast will get clearer soon.

Winter will hang around with us through the first half of next week, but a warming trend should commence after that.

As for records for today….I found a doozy out of New York state, on Fishers Island in Long Island Sound.  This is an island at the very end of Long Island and it sets just off the coast of Connecticut. On this day in 1717, a herd of 1200 sheep were found buried under a snow drift. They had been there for four weeks! When they were all finally uncovered, 100 of the sheep were still alive. That’s a heck of a tale!

Also, on this date in 1909 a horrendous tornado outbreak struck Arkansas. One tornado that was nearly a mile wide hid Brinkley, Arkansas and practically destroyed the whole town (860 buildings destroyed!). Entire families were swept away with their houses (likely an EF-5).  Dallas and Monroe Counties were also devastated, as tornadoes injured nearly 700 and killed 64 in those two counties alone. Believe it or not, this isn’t the worst tornado outbreak Arkansas has seen, by far.

We should be thankful for the weather we have today, Heaven knows we could be dealing with a lot worse stuff this time of year.

You all have a great day and, for those of you who aren’t fond of the snow and cold, just keep in mind that spring will be back before you know it. If you don’t like the weather around here, just wait five minutes and it’ll change.   🙂

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