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Spring will be back tomorrow!

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SUMMARY

It is cold outside this morning! That little breeze has quite the bite to it. We dipped down to 23 degrees last night, and we’ll struggle to get to 40 today. We had a weak cold front pass through last night that is reinforcing the cold air we have in place. You may have noticed some snow flurries on the car and rooftops this morning? That was from the front. There was just enough moisture in the air for the front to squeeze out some flurries. Tonight, this same front begins lifting back to the north as a warm front. That warmer air will help us get to the upper 50s tomorrow, if not 60. That will lead us into a much warmer air mass than what we’ve had lately. That warm air will come with moisture, though, so we may be dodging showers and thunderstorms from Friday afternoon through the weekend. It doesn’t look like a total washout, but Friday night looks very wet and may be the wettest time of the weekend. I’ll fine tune that forecast in later outlooks. A strong cold front makes its way toward us on Monday, bringing more showers and storms. Some of the storms Monday could be strong to severe. I’ll keep you posted.

DISCUSSION

Our next system of interest will blow in here Friday night. Due to the system moving in at night, when the atmosphere is most stable, our severe threat should be extremely low. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas well to our southwest in the risk for severe weather, but that’s due to ingredients they will have that we simply won’t. Therefore, severe weather is not anticipated with Friday night’s rain.  But, we could hear some rumbles of thunder.

Below: The slight risk for severe weather for Friday is well west of the plateau and is not expected to impact our region.

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Looking at the latest model data, I wouldn’t be surprised if Saturday and Sunday are actually halfway decent. We’ll have rain around the first half of the day Saturday but the second half may be just fine. At least the first half of Sunday may be fine, too. I’ll keep fine tuning this forecast as we get closer to the weekend.

The next system of interest is the cold front we have coming Monday. It’s not going to drop our temps down to where we are now, but it is a decent cold front. The Storm Prediction Center hasn’t highlighted a severe weather threat for us yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they do that in later outlooks. They mentioned doing it this morning but they’re holding off due to some model disagreements on the timing of the front and the amount of instability that we’ll have. This is only Wednesday, so it’s a bit too early to be highlighting threat areas. I’ll keep you posted.

On this date in 1933 the weather was very different, folks. That was the day downtown Nashville was hit by an F-3 tornado, as the tornado touched down just four miles west of the city and moved east, right into downtown Nashville.  Fifteen people lost their lives and 45 people were injured. The tornado stayed on the ground for a whopping 45 miles! It finally lifted in Smith County.  There are two very interesting points to be made here. The first point is that 65 years and one month later another tornado, also an F-3, would take the exact same path through Nashville (April 1998). What are the chances both tornadoes would take the same path and have the same intensity? The second point is that 1933 was a rough year for us in Tennessee for tornadoes. By the time that tornado season was over we had lost 52 Tennesseans to tornadoes. And that was 1933. There are a heck of a lot more people around now and the loss would likely have been much greater. As we get into May, I’ll be telling you about one of the 1933 tornadoes that hit close to home in Livingston. It’s a heck of a tornado story, and one that I’ve spent some time researching, so stay tuned for that!

You all have a great day and try and stay warm! Tomorrow will be much more spring-like!

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