Yes, it is the Ides of March. The date on which Julius Caesar was assassinated. The Ides are the middle of the month, with March 15 being the Ides of March. It was also the deadline date set by the Romans for settling one’s debts. In the Shakespearean play, which dramatizes the assassination a bit, a soothsayer tells Julius to beware the Ides of March. Thus, we now forever say, “Beware the Ides of March.” But, there’s nothing to beware of in the weather business today! It’s all sunshine and warmer temps, folks. In fact, the warmer air began moving in last night. That’s why we never dropped below 31 degrees here in town last night, in spite of having a very chilly day yesterday. Rain moves in late in the day on Friday and really picks up in the overnight hours. We could see an inch of rainfall by Saturday morning. Don’t cancel any outdoor plans this weekend unless they’re for Saturday morning. The second half of Saturday and all of Sunday look great, with partly cloudy skies and very warm temperatures. The only snag in the weekend forecast could be some clouds and showers before noon on Saturday, if they even hang on that long.
A strong cold front moves in here for Monday, bringing the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms. Much cooler air will filter in behind this front. In fact, we could even see some snow showers by Tuesday night. I’ll keep you posted on all of this, as it is still several days away and a lot can change.
Looking at the latest model data, the timing of the rain coming Friday may be just right for a nice weekend! The bulk of the rainfall looks to fall during the overnight hours on Friday. We could hear some rumbles of thunder but no severe weather is expected. That will stay well to the southwest of us, in a region from Memphis to Shreveport, LA. We could easily see an inch of rainfall here by Saturday morning.
The second half of Saturday looks awesome, with partly cloudy skies and highs around 70. Sunday looks good too, with the next round of rain holding off until after dark.
The next system to watch is the one coming in here on Monday. That is a very strong cold front. In fact, the air behind the front looks colder today than it did yesterday. There could even be enough cold air to turn some of the rain to snow showers by Tuesday night. It’s too early to nail down any specifics with that, of course, but that gives you an idea of how much cooler the air behind that front may be. Stay tuned because the models may back off on this.
The thing we need to be watchful for is the chance for strong to severe storms when the front comes through. We’re in severe weather season, when the clash of the air masses can get a bit rowdy. So, we have to be mindful of the fronts that pass through this time of year. I’ll keep an eye on it and will keep you posted. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center thinks the greater risk of severe weather will be to our south. I’ll watch it.
I was looking in the records this morning and stumbled upon something that really surprised me. We have never had a documented tornado in the month of March in Cumberland County. How odd is that? April and May are our peak months. We did have the deadly Leap Day tornado in 2012 that occurred on February 29th. Had that not been a leap year, that would have happened on March 1st. Other than that, there are no tornadoes recorded for March. I’m working on a tornado climatology for Cumberland County like I did for Fentress County. I’ll probably end up doing one for all the counties of the plateau.
We’ve already warmed up to 43 degrees, after a morning low of 31 here at TAP. A very nice day is in store for us.
For those of you who don’t follow me on Facebook, you should know that we had a very good turnout for a fundraiser we had here at work for St. Jude yesterday. I’m running in the St. Jude Rock-n-Roll marathon in Nashville on April 28 and pledged to raise $1,000 for St. Jude. This will be my fifth time running in the race, but it’s the first time I’ve ever pledged this much money. With the amazing help of my co-workers here at weatherTAP, we put together a Frito Bandito benefit lunch here at work yesterday and raised the thousand dollars that I needed to raise to meet the pledge goal I had. How awesome is that!? I couldn’t ask for a more generous, hard-working group of people than what we have here at Trade-A-Plane.
You all have a great day and enjoy this beautiful sunshine!