I just wanted to give a quick update on Monday’s severe weather. Nothing much has changed with the severe wx expectations. I still think the greatest tornado threat will stay just west of the plateau, but it’s far too close for comfort. The Storm Prediction Center did back off the greatest threat and now has most of the plateau in the slight risk, rather than the next level higher (enhanced).That being said, we may be placed right back in it tomorrow, so stay tuned.
We basically need to see how the environment looks in the morning in order to gage the level of threat that we face. We have a lot of the ingredients already coming together, so confidence is high that we’ll see severe wx around the plateau. Large hail will be a big threat, as we will have lots of cold air moving in aloft. I expect to see a lot of large hail reports around TN tomorrow evening.
As for timing, just pay attention to the weather starting in the afternoon and then on into the evening. Earlier it looked like the greatest threat would be 3-6:00 pm but now it looks like that threat may linger on closer to 8:00 pm or so. Stay tuned for revisions on the timing.
With all this being said, just make sure you know what to do if a warning is issued. Being prepared is so key to remaining calm and safe. Don’t wait until a warning is issued to figure out what you’re going to do. Trust me, as someone who chases these things, your time runs out so fast you won’t know what to do if you don’t have a plan already figured out.
Just pay attention to the weather tomorrow and I’ll keep you posted. If you have travel plans that take you west or southwest of the plateau, be especially vigilant, as the weather has the potential to be much worse there than here.
I’ll be watching it all!