Spring-like weather returns

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SUMMARY

While we’ve seen a few peaks of the sun this morning, we’ll see a lot more in the way of clouds today than we will sun.  Showers will also pop up from time to time across the plateau, though they will remain widely scattered. Tuesday will be the driest day of the week and we may even see some sun. The warm front moving across the plateau today and tonight will have moved far enough north on Tuesday that we should stay dry, as the showers associated with the warm front moves to our north. That warm front will bring up a very warm and moist air mass that will collide with an approaching, slow moving cold front. This will lead to rain showers on Wednesday, followed by widespread rain, some of which will be heavy, from Wednesday night to Thursday night. Rain tapers off to showers in the overnight hours of Thursday and those showers will continue to hang around with us through Friday.

Temps will remain very mild this week, as we will be entrenched in the warm, humid air mass coming off the Gulf of Mexico.  While we will be warm and humid, the ingredients for severe weather are lacking and therefore we do not look for any severe t-storms this week. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat, though we could still hear some rumbles of thunder, and we should always be mindful of the dangers associated with lightning.

Better weather should finally arrive on Saturday. I’m sorry to say that models are now hinting at yet another disturbance rolling in here sometime Sunday, which could bring more clouds. Let’s hope this solution changes today and that we go back to looking for an Easter Sunday with sunshine. Next week looks very unsettled and potentially quite cool. I’ll keep you posted.

DISCUSSION

The highlight of this forecast period will be the heavy rain threat Wednesday night and Thursday. Rainfall amounts should range from 2-4 inches across the plateau, with some areas perhaps getting a bit more, especially south of Crossville. Thunderstorms will also be possible and they will produce locally higher rainfall amounts. The threat for severe weather will stay well to our southwest and will not be something we worry about on the plateau.

It’s always risky to look a week ahead this time of year. I wish I could tell you that Easter weekend will be filled with lots of sunshine but I can’t do that. I wish the models had stuck with their solutions that they produced yesterday, indicating a nice Easter weekend. I still think Saturday will be fine, but we may have clouds to deal with on Easter. Hopefully, the disturbance the models are showing this morning will either go away or stay to our north on Sunday. I’ll keep an eye on that forecast as we go through the week.

Glancing into next week I worry about colder temps. The Climate Prediction Center even put the northern Plains in the risk for severe cold and the slight risk for hazardous weather associated with cold temps has now been extended as far south as Kentucky. I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on that. You know, we’ve had snow in the first week of April before…… just sayin’.  A lot can change in the next week, but I thought I’d give you a heads up in case you get a crazy idea to plant something that’s frost sensitive. Remember, this weatherman says NEVER plant anything that’s frost sensitive before May 15. And even then, I’d check the weather forecast.

Here are the threats outlined for this week. Notice we have a heavy rain threat, while the severe wx threats remain back over Oklahoma and Texas.

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Below is the map showing the threat for cold weather the first week of April.

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You all have a great Monday! I’ll leave you with an impressive photo of a storm in north Texas late Sunday evening. They will be dealing with severe weather again today, tomorrow and Wednesday.

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