SUMMARY
Today will be mostly cloudy and quite windy. We could see wind gusts reach 30 mph this evening. I can’t completely rule out a shower or sprinkle, but the chances of that happening are really low. Tonight, we’ll see mostly cloudy skies and continued windy conditions as the next big storm system creeps ever closer. Rain will develop throughout the day Wednesday, though the first half of the day will probably be mostly dry. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity overnight Wednesday and that rain will continue, heavy at times, through Thursday. That rainfall will taper off to just isolated to scattered showers for Friday, though we may see a peak or two of sun by Friday afternoon or evening. Rainfall totals will vary from 2-4 inches across the plateau, with areas south of Crossville being on the higher end of that forecast. Saturday looks really nice, at this point, with highs in the mid 60s and partly cloudy skies.
As for Easter, another disturbance drops in here during the overnight hours of Saturday and may bring some showers. Hopefully, those will be out of here before sunrise services, but I would prepare for a shower or two if your attending any of those. The bulk of Easter looks pretty good (at this point), with partly to mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. I’ll keep an eye on this and update you as we get closer to Easter.
Below is a map of possible total rainfall accumulation this week.
DISCUSSION
The good news from all this rain is that it will not come with a big severe weather threat. We will have thunderstorms around, but they should remain below severe limits. Be mindful of the heavy rain, though, as it could pond on the roadways Wednesday night and Thursday. Streams will continue to rise Thursday night, so be aware of that if you live in areas prone to flooding or if you have roads in your area that are prone to flooding from these streams.
I think Good Friday will be alright. We’ll have some showers that morning, but we should see improving conditions during the afternoon. That better weather should stick with us through Saturday.
I was looking at the disturbance for Easter on the models again this morning, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that is an overnight Saturday event. Keep in mind that this is only Tuesday and timing will likely change, but if what the models this morning are showing verifies, we’ll have showers Saturday night, followed by a halfway decent Easter Sunday. Fingers crossed! I guess the good news for the kids is that Saturday Easter egg hunts should have great weather, though the ground will be very wet from this week’s rainfall.
Then, looking into next week I see a lot of chilly air coming. We’re definitely looking at more frost and freeze conditions. Unseasonably cold air will move south and cover a huge portion of the U.S., bringing April snowfall chances to folks up north. Just for kicks, I looked ahead to see what the models were saying for us and it’s not impossible that we’ll see more snow showers next month. I’ll keep an eye on it. The weekend of April 7-8th looks the most interesting, but it’s FAR too early to talk about that. Just keep in mind that winter isn’t through with us yet.
Below is a map from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) showing temps well below normal for the northern U.S. the first week of April. I wouldn’t’ be surprised to see substantial snowfall across the northern fringes of the highlighted precip area.
And this is a map from the CPC warning of the possibility of much colder air as far south as the Deep South.
We have had snow the first week of April before and we’ve had snow showers/flurries throughout the month. With unseasonably cold temps coming, and a very active jet stream throwing disturbances our way, I wouldn’t be surprised if we haven’t seen the last of this season’s snow flakes. Stay tuned.
I was looking at the records this morning and there are all kinds of tornado anniversaries for both us and the whole South and Midwest and southern Plains for today. Dozens killed in this one, hundreds of homes destroyed in that one, etc. etc. They all have one thing in common; temps were warm. So, if you don’t like storms then you must love the extended outlooks showing colder temps. We’ll not have severe storms to worry about.
You all have a great day!