A rather gloomy Good Friday

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SUMMARY

Today, we’ll be mostly cloudy, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some peaks of sun from time to time.  I also wouldn’t be surprised if a sprinkle or light shower fell from some of these clouds. We should see a dry day on Saturday, and we should also see more sunshine! It won’t be a completely sunny day, but we will see more sun than we’ve seen in some time. Don’t get too used to it, though. More clouds move in Saturday night and they will bring some more rain showers with them. Those showers should move out of here by noon Sunday (probably sooner), and we may even see a peak or two of sun. Rain showers move in Sunday night and those will stick with us through at least Wednesday.

A strong cold front will move onto the plateau Tuesday night and that could bring some strong storms. Right now, widespread severe weather does not look likely, but I’ll keep an eye on it. Temps fall off to below normal levels behind that front, as we enter a mcuh cooler, wetter pattern for the first half of April.

I’ll update the forecast this weekend, for those of you with Easter sunrise services planned.

DISCUSSION

We are now on the second-to-the-last day of March and the weatherTAP weather station shows that we have accumulated 4.07 inches of rain for the month.  That’s probably about as much as we’ll get for this month, though we may add a tenth or two before midnight Saturday. That’s about as close to average as you can get, since our average March precipitation is 4.96 inches.

As we head into April, we enter the heart of our severe weather season. Of the 25 tornadoes that Cumberland County has ever recorded, 10 of those occurred in April. Interestingly, of the eight lives that have been lost in Cumberland County to tornadoes, only two have occurred in April, with four being lost in November and two in February. Of the four F-3s we have experienced, two of those occurred in the month of  April (’74, ’65)  (one other was in May (’95) and the other one was in November (’02). Cumberland County has never seen a tornado ranked stronger than an F-3. Nearly all of our tornadoes move from the southwest to northeast, which is quite typical of tornadoes in the Southeast.

While most tornadoes in the South occur at night, most of our tornadoes occur during the day, in particularly during the afternoon. Of the 25 tornadoes we have recorded, 13 occurred during the noon to 6:00 p.m time frame. This is followed by eight that occurred from 6:00 p.m. to midnight, two from 6:00 a.m. to noon, and only one occurring in the midnight to 6:00 a.m. time frame. One tornado didn’t have a time listed.

For those of you who aren’t too fond of severe weather, you’ll like that the extended outlooks have our temps averaging below normal for the first two weeks of April. This does not bode well for severe weather. Extended outlooks that show above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation are ideal for severe weather this time of year, and we simply don’t see that in the near future.

That doesn’t mean we can’t completely let our guard down, of course, but the outlook for the first half of April certainly doesn’t indicate any major problems for us. In fact, it’s been interesting watching the models indicate more snow flurry and snow shower chances for us. I can certainly see more frost and freeze conditions coming. But, we’re not climatologically out of the woods for frost until the middle of May, so this isn’t unusual at all.

By the way, be careful what you see on social media these days. Yes, some of the models have been indicating snow for us the 7-8th of April. Yes, one of those models even indicated a 9-inch snowfall for the plateau. Still other models have shown ice for portions of the southern Plains and even over to us for that same time period. These are models and their reliability that far out in time is absolutely awful. Never the less, I’m already seeing the “basement social ‘media’rologists” screaming apocalyptic winter weather for that time. By the way, these same models have done this kind of stuff all winter and look where it’s gotten us! (ha) Maybe we will get snow, it’s happened before in April. But, more than likely we won’t. Just be aware of those who post stuff on FB, etc just to get clicks. And please, for the love of all that is good in this world, please please please don’t share those posts (haha). Every time you share one of those posts, an Easter Bunny dies. Think about that.  :/  #savethebunnies

It is fun to see what the models predict, especially that far out in time.  I wish they could be depended upon, but they simply can’t. Unfortunately, I see a lot of new meteorology grads rely on them far too much.

I’ll keep an eye on all of this and I’ll let you know as soon as any legitimate threats come upon us. You know already know this. At this point, the storms for Tuesday evening are our biggest concern, and that’s not looking too bad.

You all have a great Good Friday.

And perhaps it’s appropriate to have a rather gloomy Good Friday, ….when you think about it……..

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