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Strong storms tonight

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SUMMARY

We are about to enter a very active weather pattern, beginning tonight. First, we’ll dodge showers today, as warm air moves up from the south ahead of our storm system that will be moving in tonight. The winds will also begin picking up and by this evening should be gusting to 30 mph, if not a bit higher. Then, later this evening a strong cold front will begin crossing the state, bringing strong to severe t-storms. By the time the line of storms reaches the plateau, damaging straight-line winds will be our primary threat, along with some hail. The tornado threat for our area is quite low, but not completely zero. The main tornado threat would be from brief, quick spin-ups along the squall line. Again, the primary hazard is strong straight-line winds.

Then, we’ll enter a period of below average temps for this time of year. Remember, I’ve been talking about this April cool down for a week or so and I mentioned the possibility of a wintry event for the weekend of the 7th and 8th. Well, now more models are starting to suggest that we may have a wintry mix on our hands Friday night. It’s April, so this is climatologically not likely, but we will be quite chilly when that system moves in and if it tracks just to our south, as it looks like it will (at least it looks that way right now) then we would be looking at a rain/snow mix Friday night, if not all snow. This is definitely worth watching and that’s exactly what I’ll be doing.

Below is the severe wx threat for tonight. Notice that the enhanced risk now covers a good bit of Middle TN and now all of the plateau is in the slight risk. The enhanced risk for Middle TN is for the straight-line wind threat. The threat of tornadoes is low.

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A wind advisory is in effect for everyone west of the plateau. This could be extended eastward as the day goes along.

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DISCUSSION

I won’t say much here, as I’ll be updating you all throughout the day. The good news about tonight’s storms is that this is NOT a major tornado outbreak situation. The wind fields and other factors just aren’t there for significant tornadoes. My brother reminded me of something last night. He said he couldn’t remember the last time we had a tornado outbreak that wasn’t forecast. That’s a good point. I can’t either! Forecasting has come a long way in the past couple of decades, and foreseeing major severe events has gotten so much better.

The main threat tonight will be the straight-line winds.

Then, there’s the snow threat for Friday night. I’ll have to keep an eye on that too. We’re still a few days away, but model consistency in foreseeing something wintry happening here on the plateau with that system has held my attention for  week or so now. I’ll keep monitoring it and it will be interesting to see what future model runs show.

I’ll be online and with the storms until the threat has completely passed our area. I’ll let you know as soon as that happens on Facebook and at https://meteorologistmark.com/.

Review your severe weather plan when you get home this evening. Make sure everyone knows what to do if a warning is issued.

I’ll keep you updated throughout the day and as needed. The main threat should come in here between  9:00 pm. and midnight.  I’ll update timing later today.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns!

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