At the 11:30 a.m. update, the Storm Prediction Center expanded the enhanced risk to include more of the plateau. This is understandable, in that the potential for damaging winds will be fairly high. The good news is that the tornado threat is very low for us. The only exception would be brief, weak spin-ups that may form along the squall line.
Tornado watches have just been issued for portions of West TN until 8:00 p.m. More watches will be issued for Middle TN later on, and at some point those watches will extend to us here on the plateau.
Below is the updated outlook for severe weather. All of the plateau is now in the enhanced or slight risk for severe weather.
The timing of severe weather.
At 1:55, we’re seeing the line just beginning to develop. I know it seems far away, but this thing will race eastward, reaching the plateau around midnight (give or take an hour).
At this hour, tornado watches are in yellow. The atmosphere is much more unstable across these areas. The storms will weaken as they move onto the plateau, though they could still pack a punch with damaging wind gusts.
I’ll be watching it all until the threat has passed.