A summer-like forecast

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SUMMARY

This week will feature very warm temps. The only catch is a series of disturbances that will be moving through this week, kicking off some showers and t-storm chances. Just take yesterday’s forecast and you have today’s. The disturbance coming through this evening could kick off another round of showers/storms. We still have enough cold air aloft that any storm that develops could easily produced some small hail. Storms are expected to stay below severe limits, but I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two get a little rowdy. As always, be aware of the dangers of lightning.

Tuesday looks drier, as we don’t have any disturbances that look strong enough to kick off a shower. That could change, but right now Tuesday looks dry. Wednesday we have yet another chance of some showers/storms but they should hold off until later in the day and/or overnight hours. A front moves in Thursday and that should bring the best, most widespread chance of rain for the week. Since this is a front and we are in the peak of severe weather season, I’ll keep an eye on any severe weather chances. Right now, those chances look slim.

The front is still close enough on Friday that we should continue to see some scattered showers and storms, before this whole unsettled pattern clears out in time to give us a beautiful, albeit warm, weekend.

DISCUSSION

If you have any outdoor plans for this evening don’t cancel them, but be aware that a shower or storm could pop up at any time. You’ll need a place to get to at least protect you from lightning. Other than that, the weather is looking good for today.

The weather looks even better for tomorrow. Even if we do have to add in a shower chance, it would only be about 20%, so most of us (if not all of us) will stay dry tomorrow.

Wednesday’s forecast gets a bit trickier because the timing of the disturbance coming through will determine our best rain chances for that day. Right now, it looks like the disturbance will come through late in the evening, giving us a pretty day.

Then, the best chance of rain arrives Thursday with a cold front. I call this a cold front but the air behind it is not colder. The front will bring in some drier air for the weekend, so that’s a good thing! Drier air heats up easily, especially with the sun angle getting so high in the sky, so the temps will still be very warm this weekend.

Looking at some records it’s VERY easy to tell that the weather is not always so peaceful this time of year. On this day in 1840 a terrible tornado hit Natchez, Mississippi and killed 317 people. The tornado followed the Mississippi River, taking several boats with it. Then, it the very busy port at Natchez, following the river and climbing bluffs to the town. The tornado killed 269 people on the river.  At least 69 people were killed on their boats on the river. The tornado then raged across plantations and it was reported by a newspaper that hundreds of slaves were killed in the fields. Unfortunately, we’ll never know the true death toll from this storm because slave deaths “didn’t count.” There were only 109 injuries from the tornado, a testament to how fierce and nearly unsurvivable  this tornado was.  Most people doing business at the port at Natchez were killed. A piece from a steamboat was found 30 miles inland!  This is the deadliest tornado in early American history and the second deadliest in all of American history.

Thankfully, our weather across the country is quite peaceful for today. In fact, this has been one of the quietest severe weather seasons many folks have seen in years. We still have the rest of May to go but, so far, no major severe weather outbreaks are in sight.

Speaking of peaceful, did you catch that sunset last night? My camera didn’t do it justice but other people’s did. This was sent to me by Athena Archambault, one of my Facebook Followers.

You all have a great day!

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