Yesterday, it looked like our rain chances would be at least 50% today, meaning at least half of us would get wet. But, today it looks more like only a third of us will see rain (if that). We’re caught between two systems and that often reduces our chances of getting rain. However, tomorrow system #1 (see map below) will finally be over here on Tuesday and that will give us our best chance of rain for the week. We could also see some strong storms tomorrow, with small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.
Once this system pushes through, we’ll see much drier conditions for Wednesday and Thursday. I still can’t rule out an isolated storm Wednesday afternoon (20% chance, at best) but most of us will stay dry. All of us should stay dry for Thursday, though that will allow us to become quite warm.
By Friday, our rain chances will start creeping back up a bit, and by this coming weekend we should be back to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Those look to stick with us right on through the Memorial Day holiday. It’s probably nothing to cancel outdoor plans over, and it will be a very similar patter to what we’ve been seeing, but you will need to be mindful of the storm chances and be ready to take cover from lightning.
It’s already very warm and humid outside this morning, so you can only imagine how it will feel by this afternoon. If you have to work outside be careful in this weather. It’s easy to overheat when the humidity is so high. That humidity will likely lead to some storms this afternoon, but they should be quiet isolated.
Tomorrow’s rain chances look pretty good. I’d say at least half us will see rain, if not more than half. We’ll need it, because the second half of this week is looking hot and dry.
Then, things may get interesting.
We’re keeping an eye on the Gulf this week, as models are hinting at a low developing. This low could, albeit it’s a slim chance, become our first tropical storm of the season. Regardless of whether or not the low becomes a storm, it will displace a lot of warm, muggy air across the Southeast, as it moves onshore the end of this week. If you have travel plans to the Gulf Coast this Memorial Day weekend, you’ll need to monitor this. It’s probably not worth cancelling your travel plans before, but it’s something you need to keep an eye on.
For the rest of us, the system will just bring an increase in shower and storm chances for the weekend. It will be a very similar pattern to what we saw last week, with scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and skies clearing after dark.
Below is the area of disturbed weather that the National Hurricane Center will be monitoring this week. Right now, the chance of development into a tropical storm is really low. However, the system will bring an increase in rain chances to all of us in the Southeast by Memorial Day weekend.
This weekend I had the pleasure of being able to attend the retirement party of Lisa Lane. She is the mother of Matilda Lane, who just recently left us to take a different job in Cookeville. I met Lisa at our company picnic last summer and knew the moment I met her that she was a very special person. She is, of course, a huge Meteorologist Mark fan! (I know, who isn’t? haha). She is the one who invited me to the career day at Petros Joyner Elementary School a week ago and gave me the opportunity to share my career with the students.
I had to spend that whole day with her, knowing the surprise party was only a week away. It was so hard keeping the secret!
On Saturday, her family managed to pull off the best surprise party I’ve ever seen! She was truly surprised. Her family came in from Indiana, as well as her college best friends. She was absolutely floored. And it couldn’t have happened to a kinder, sweeter lady. So, after 38 years of teaching and touching the lives of countless kids, Lisa is finally going to take some time and just relax. We certainly wish her all the best in retirement! It’s is well deserved!
She says she wants to do the things she’s always wanted to do but didn’t have time. I may have to find out if one of those things is storm chasing….. ha
In the first picture, Lisa figures out this is a surprise party for her. She was absolutely floored!
And we showered her with gifts. ha
Incidentally, she thought the family was taking her to see the fireflies at Elkmont in the Smoky Mountains that night. Those are the synchronous fireflies you hear about in the news every year. When everyone discovered how much she really did want to see them, we all scrambled to try to get tickets for them. You have to enter a lottery to win a spot to watch the fireflies. We all entered the lottery but we were all rejected. We were very relieved when she was much more thrilled about the party than the fireflies! (insert sigh of relief!)
You all have a great day and stay cool!