I hope you are having a great holiday weekend and that you remember to be thankful for all those who have given the ultimate sacrifice for our country.
The forecast for the next few days remains unchanged. We’ll be very warm and humid with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms. The keyword here is “mainly.” That means most of the activity will occur in the heat of the day, when the fuel (heat) for storms is at its max. That doesn’t mean we won’t see any showers in the mornings, that’s certainly possible in such an unstable atmosphere, but our best chances will occur in the afternoons and evenings. I don’t think its anything to cancel outdoor plans for, but make sure you have a shelter to get to in case in starts lightning.
Radar this morning shows isolated showers around. These will increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon and evening, before dying back down overnight.
We are in a pattern where the flow is straight up here from the Gulf. That gives us a very warm and humid airmass that creates the possibility for showers and storms.
Subtropical Storm Alberto is developing in the southern Gulf, as expected, and remains unchanged from yesterday. Most of the rain and storms are well to the east and north of the center due to a lot wind shear in the Gulf. That shear keeps storms from being able to organize near the center of the storm. That shear should relax in about 24 hours and that could allow Alberto to strengthen into a strong tropical storm. It still doesn’t look like it will become a hurricane but if it does it will be a cat 1 at best.
The storm should start impacting the Gulf Coast with rainfall as early as tonight (well ahead of the center) and that activity will spread northward with time. By the time the storm reaches Tennessee the middle of next week, it will be so weak that we will likely only see an increase in our mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms. I’ll keep an eye on it but that is certainly the most likely possibility.
We could get some good rainfall between now and next Friday, with several inches in most of our rain buckets, BUT it all depends on how many of these scattered showers and storms you end up under. You know how it is….you get a sprinkle, while your neighbor has his driveway washed out.
I found an interesting record for you all today. On this day in 1917 a tornado touched down near the town of Louisiana, Missouri at noon and remained on the ground for a distance of 293 miles, finally lifting seven hours and twenty minutes later in eastern Jennings County, Indiana. The twister cut a swath of destruction two and a half miles wide through Mattoon, IL. There were 101 persons killed in the tornado, including 53 at Mattoon, and 38 at Charleston IL. Damage from the storm totaled 2.5 million dollars.
It’s about a hundred miles from here to Nashville. This tornado was on the ground for nearly 300 miles! That’s insane.
At least we don’t have any tornadoes to deal with this weekend! Some of the storms could get strong, or even briefly severe, (as usual with summer afternoon storms around here) but we certainly don’t have any severe weather outbreaks coming. We can be very thankful for that.
Remember, last year we had that awful wind storm on Memorial Day weekend? That was bad and we don’t have anything like that to worry about!
Again, you all have a great and safe weekend and remember the reason the for this holiday.