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An unstable atmosphere

Last night we saw storms develop, strengthen, and then weaken to our west. Thankfully, they were never able to develop into any organized complex of storms that could have woken us all up. I was up watching it, though, just in case. Our atmosphere is in a state of instability, meaning it won’t take much to kick off a storm. Unfortunately, models do not handle this kind of environment well at all and they sure don’t handle complexes of storms very well. Still, it’s better to err on the side of caution. There’s nothing worse than being woke up on the middle of the night by bad storms that you had no idea where even possible.

Today, we do it all over again. All indications were that we would be dealing with scattered showers and storms this morning. While there are some showers on radar this morning, I’m not seeing much lightning in them (at least not in our immediate area). This means our forecast for today is a bit trickier. If we had gotten more rain this morning, our atmosphere would have been more stable this afternoon. Now, we’ll need to be mindful of any storm that pops up today, as it could become quite strong. The Storm Prediction Center has the greater risk of severe storms coming right up to the western edge of the plateau. It does include Cookeville and Livingston. In other words, it’s close enough that we all need to be weather-aware today.

Another complex of storms will threaten us later this evening. Models consistently showed this complex weakening for last night, but it has maintained its full strength. It is currently in central Arkansas, surging eastward. If it holds together, I’ll have to keep an eye on it as it enters Middle TN later on today. Meanwhile, showers and storms can develop at any moment, so be aware of that if you have any outdoor plans today.

Folks, I’ll be watching that radar and I’ll let you know if there’s anything you need to know about. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center is considering issuing a severe t-storm watch that will include parts of West Tn, though it may only reach to around Memphis. I’ll let you know if there’s any consideration later today for expanding those watches eastward. As hot and humid as we will be, there will certainly be enough fuel for these storms to survive. But, there’s more to it than that and we’ll have to see if the other necessary ingredients align.

You all have a great day. Don’t cancel any outdoor plans but know that you may need to seek shelter from a storm at any time. It’s just that type of atmosphere, folks.

Below is the convective outlook, with the slight risk (yellow) extending to the edge of the plateau.

WARN_REG_SOUTHEAST-SVR

Radar at 8:57 CDT a.m. in central Arkansas. this line of storms may continue to surge eastward today, bringing severe weather to West TN later, and possibly to our neck fo the woods after dark.

RAD_KLZK_N0R

At 9:00 a.m., the Storm Prediction Center is considering issuing a new severe t-storm watch for eastern Arkansas and extreme western West TN.

mcd0856

2 thoughts on “An unstable atmosphere

  1. Thank you man! You’re very detailed and thorough and do a great job.

    1. Thanks, Daniel! I appreciate that.

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