I’ll just get right to it. Tonight’s forecast is a bit tricky. On the one hand, we had a lot of showers and storms on the plateau this evening and those have done a lot to stabilize our atmosphere. We’re not completely stable, but we’re more stable than we were this afternoon. On the other hand, not everyone got a lot of rain and some parts of the southern plateau are still very warm and unstable. The fact that most of us north of I-40 are cool and more stable, while the atmosphere south of I-40 is a bit more unstable, can create a boundary for storms to strengthen on. That’s something I’ll have to watch tonight.
All indications are that the line of severe storms dropping into West TN right now will weaken as they move into and across Middle TN. Honestly, I don’t trust the models because they haven’t done a very good job with these storm complexes lately. Maybe they’ll finally get it right tonight. Let’s hope.
If these storms make it here our greatest risk will come from straight-line winds. They will also have the potential to contain lots of lightning and some hail. The tornado threat remains very low.
If you have a weather radio, go to bed. That’s the beauty of owning one of those things. You’ve now read my blog and you won’t be absolutely shocked if it goes off tonight. You can say you had an idea that this might happen. There’s nothing worse than being woke up at 2:00 a.m, surprised by a bad summer night storm. I’m going to do everything in my power to make sure that never happens to you. I have a terrible childhood memory of this happening to me when I was a kid (I’ll tell you about it sometime. ha)
I’ll be up and watching this for you all. I’ll post updates on FB, of course, as needed. We’ll know a lot more when these storms move into Middle TN. Some of you have probably noticed the storms in KY right now and I’m watching those, too. They should stay north of us but those of you in northern Overton, Picket, and northern Fentress Counties may get brushed by those before midnight. They are strong and they’ve caused damage in KY.
The rest of us face a threat after midnight. I expect the line to get here around 2:00 a.m. but that time is not set in stone, as these lines can speed up and slow down at their whim.
This is not a tornado outbreak kind of night. This is a squall line kind of night. If these storms make it here they’ll be in and out in a short period of time. We do run the risk of heavy rainfall with this line, even if it’s not severe. And there will be lightning, so be aware of that.
Several of you are out camping and I’ve heard from you all day. Pay attention to the weather tonight and either have a weather radio or designate someone to monitor the weather. If a warning is issued, what will you do? Develop a plan now. That goes for any day, not just today. ALWAYS have a severe weather plan if you’re out camping. Don’t wait till all heck breaks lose and everyone is panicking to figure out your plan. It’s too late at that point. Those of you at Dale Hollow right now know that storms can intensify fast around that lake. We saw that today and we could see it again tonight.
Ok, I think that about covers it, right? (ha) The bottom line is this, folks….these storms will likely fall apart as they approach the plateau. But, there’s a chance they won’t. And that’s why I do this. I won’t let you get caught off guard if I can help it.
You all have a great evening. I’ll be on FB if you need me.