Weather worth watching out for today and tomorrow

Picture9

MAIN THREATS

This Evening: Severe storms with damaging winds

Wednesday Afternoon/Evening: Strong to severe t-storms

SUMMARY

Clusters of strong to severe storms in Missouri this morning are beginning to raise eyebrows for our weather later this evening. As a respectable meteorologist once told me, “Sometimes you really do just need to look out the window to get a feel for what the atmosphere is thinking.” Sometimes you need to put the model data, satellite, and radar info aside and just look up. Well, looking out my window I can already see lots of evidence of an unstable atmosphere, even though there is nothing on radar near us now.

Picture10

Models had been consistent in showing only scattered showers and storms for us today, with a lack of upper-level support for severe storms. That has since changed. Any storm that develops will have the potential to pack a punch. The main concern is a line of storms in Missouri this morning that may move our way later this afternoon and evening. There is no reason for this line to weaken as it moves into our environment, so I’ll be watching that radar for some big storms later today. The main threat will come late this afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has now upgraded our area to a slight risk for severe weather. This is “hot off the press” and, quite frankly, a bit unexpected. But, sometimes weather changes on a dime and we just have to keep up. It always looked like we’d have storms today, but it never looked as if we’d have such a threat of severe weather. Who knows? Maybe that line will weaken or move more north of us. It’s enough of a concern, though, to warrant letting you all know of the risk. The main risk will be from damaging, straight-line winds.

Tomorrow, the threat returns and we do it all over again. I think that threat may evolve a bit earlier in the day but I’ll update that tomorrow. The main threat again tomorrow is damaging winds and large hail. The timing of tomorrow’s storms may come closer to the noon hour and extend into the afternoon. Right now, tomorrow looks a lot like yesterday’s weather.

Right now, Thursday looks drier before more storms threaten on Friday. We’ll worry about that later.

Below is today’s threat map. A flash flood watch is just to our north, so that’s a bit close for comfort. Any storm that develops today, regardless of if it’s severe or not, will contain torrential rainfall and frequent lightning.

Picture8

And the lightning! This is an atmosphere capable of frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, folks.

LGHT_REG_SOUTHEAST

DISCUSSION

I won’t say much here, since so much has already been said. Just be weather-aware this afternoon and evening. I wouldn’t be surprised to see severe t-storm watches issued for us later on. It’ll take a while for those storms in Missouri to get here, so I think we’ll be safe from those storms until at least 3:00 p.m. But, storms could develop out ahead of that line at any time.

I’ll be here watching it all!

Leave a Reply