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Am I brave enough?

I bet that title got your attention. Am I brave enough to forecast a quiet night? That’s the question, folks (ha).

We have yet another disturbance to our northwest that is dropping southward. It looks like the bulk of this activity will stay west of the plateau tonight. Could it spark a storm for us as it passes to our west? Maybe. But, the chances of that are quiet slim. All indications are that this complex will pass far enough to our west to keep us quiet tonight. Let’s hope and pray that holds true!

The part of forecasting I take the most seriously is forecasting night storms. That can be a challenge. It’s never good to miss a forecast but most misses are pretty forgiving. For instance, if I forecast mostly sunny skies on an August day, but it ends up being cloudy, people forgive and forget that.

What bothers me most is that so many folks around here are so scared of storms. Who could blame them after the tornadoes we’ve had? So, when they wake up in the night by thunder and lightning it can be terrifying, especially when they weren’t expecting it. That’s not good.

As many of you learned, if it’s storming I’m online. Even if I didn’t see it coming, I’ll be online to do what I can to calm the concern. When you think about it, isn’t that the most important responsibility of a meteorologist? When I woke up to lightning flashing in my window this morning at 3:00 a.m. it about made me sick. I was relieved to find some of you folks who are so scared of storms already online, waiting on me. I appreciate your trust more than you know.

I’ll keep an eye on the storms tonight. The good news is that after this complex moves south, high pressure will build in for tomorrow and Saturday. That will shut this storm train down. The heat will crank up, but we can handle that. That’s what air conditioning is for (ha).

This is the radar of this complex. See why I’ve been so concerned about this? It has prompted tornado warnings this evening and is a nasty complex of storms. But, notice Nashville on the right hand side of the screen. This should pass far enough west of the plateau to keep us quiet. The complex is dropping south, southeast.

RAD_KPAH_N0R

And look at that lightning with this complex! That line of storms ain’t sneakin’ up on anybody, folks. If they don’t hear that coming they’re deafer than deaf. (ha)

LGHT_REG_SOUTHEAST

Finally, I leave you with an incredible pic sent to me today by Brian Hoover. This was taken near Pikeville, Tn this morning. Brian snapped the pic in the perfect moment that the lightning strike occurred. How cool is that? I have tried to catch lightning in a pic a million times….

You all have a great evening.

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