A hot & humid day ahead

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MAIN THREATS

Saturday: Heat

Sunday Afternoon: Heavy rainfall in storms

Monday: Heavy rainfall

SUMMARY

Be very careful if you are out in the heat this afternoon. Limit your time in the sun and drink lots of non-alcoholic liquids. Thankfully, our heat won’t be as dangerous here as it will be west of us, where numerous advisories and warnings are in place.  The plateau will stay below heat advisory criteria.

The only relief we might get today would be from an isolated afternoon or evening shower/t-storm. The best chance of that, and that chance is still slim, will be south of Crossville.

The better chances for showers and storms will come Sunday and Monday, as tropical moisture works its way north from the Gulf. This will also really increase our humidity. It’s going to really feel like summer, folks.

Some of the downpours Sunday afternoon and Monday could be quite heavy. Right now, Monday looks wetter than Sunday. Widespread severe weather is not expected. Be mindful of that lightning though.

Most of us dry out again Tuesday and Wednesday (the Fourth of July) before we find ourselves in yet another unsettled pattern the end of next week. We will likely find ourselves in another active northwest flow pattern, similar to what we had this week.

Let’s just enjoy today’s sunshine.

This is a map of all the heat advisories and warnings in effect for today. Notice that only the western-most edge of Middle TN is in the advisories. The rest of us will be hot, for sure, but we will stay below advisory criteria.

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And here are some safety tips from the National Weather Service.

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DISCUSSION

There’s really not much to add here, except to remind everyone to be careful in the heat today.  At least we’re getting some sun.  We need to dry out before more rain moves in for Sunday and Monday.

This is shaping up to be a very wet summer. We have the northwest flow from the Plains that plagued us with rain all this week. Now, we have a tropical wave that is going to bring us rain. One or the other would suffice this time of year. If we keep this up all summer we’ll be on track for an above normal precipitation summer.

Records

Speaking of tropical things. I noticed that hurricanes and tropical storms are starting to become more noticeable in the nation’s weather records for each day. On this day in 1886, the Apalachicola-Tallahassee area was devastated by the second of two terrible hurricanes within nine days! Can you imagine the misery of enduring one destructive hurricane back in these days? Imagine two in nine days! If the tropics get active and you have a steering pattern that becomes stationary, you can get multiple tropical systems within a few weeks. It’s rare, but it can and does happen.

On this day in 1972 the entire state of Pennsylvania was declared a disaster area because of Hurricane Agnes. It wasn’t the wind that caused the problems, though, it was the water. That is the case with most tropical systems. We rate the storms based on wind, even though the most destructive force from the storms is flooding. And just because a storm gets a higher rating, does not necessarily correspond to its flooding potential. It’s a flawed system that will hopefully change someday soon.

Thankfully, the tropics are quiet for now and they look to stay quiet for at least the next week.

You all have a great Saturday! I’ll be out knocking on doors again, so if you see me coming don’t run and hide (ha).

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