A sagging front throws a wrench in the forecast

Picture9

MAIN THREATS

Today: Heavy rainfall in storms

SUMMARY

This morning’s storms have been a bit rowdy! As is typical with storms this time of year, they are really putting down the lightning! That is likely what has thrown most of us from Crossville and places to our south and east into the dark. Hopefully, we’ll get our lights back on soon.

Well, folks, the front we had hoped would sag far enough to our south tonight to bring us a beautiful weekend is showing signs that it has other plans. It now looks like it will only sag into southern Tennessee, which leaves us too close to the front to rule out a shower or storm for both Saturday and Sunday. This also means we won’t get to enjoy the lower humidity we had hoped would filter in here. The humidity will lower, for sure, but just not to the extent we had hoped for with yesterday’s data. Those of you north of I-40 should have the driest weather, with only isolated storms possible, but those of you south of I-40 will have a slightly better chance of rain, since you’re closer to the front. It won’t be a washout, by any means, but we will have to keep an eye on the sky for any dark clouds that may gather. Please keep this in mind if you have plans to camp out this weekend. Have a safe place to get in case lightning comes into your area.

On Sunday, the front will have sagged northward again, giving all of us a chance for storms, mainly in the afternoon. I kept the chance at 30% but that may have to be raised to 40 or 50%.

We go into a more summer-like pattern the beginning of next week. It should be hot and humid with isolated mainly afternoon/evening storms. A more intense heat wave may build in here for the latter part of next week.

Check out this awesome photo taken yesterday evening by Bob Hearne! Isn’t that beautiful? Those evening storms can be so photogenic!

image (1)

DISCUSSION

“Cold” fronts this time of year can be tricky things to forecast for. You always hope they clear our area and give us lower humidity and drier days, but you just never know how far south they’ll get before they lose their punch and start migrating back to the north. They’re not really cold fronts. Instead, they are most efficient at lowering the humidity by turning our winds to the north. That makes it feel cooler at least!

The weekend will not be a washout but we will need to be mindful of any storms that pop up, especially if you have outdoor plans.

TROPICS

As of this morning, we now have our first hurricane of the 2018 hurricane season! Hurricane Beryl has formed WAY out in the Atlantic and now has winds of 75 mph. A storm must have winds of at least 74 mph in order to become a hurricane. He’s  a tiny one! It’s been a while since I’ve seen a hurricane this small! He would  fit inside the borders of Cumberland County!

And that complicates things…

Tiny hurricanes are difficult to forecast for. Their small size creates a problem with model data because models handle “bigger” weather a whole lot better than they do “smaller” weather. For instance, they do a pretty darn good job forecasting where big storm systems are going to track but it’s impossible to use models to forecast the path of a single thunderstorm.

The storm is expected to strengthen as it churns across the southern Atlantic. In  a few days, conditions will become hostile and it should weaken. The storm poses no threat whatsoever to the U.S. at this time.

Meanwhile, we may have Tropical Storm Chris off the Carolina coast any time now. This storm is not expected to make landfall on the Carolina Coast, but it will kick up the surf and create dangerous rip tide conditions. The track forecast is closer to the coast now than it was yesterday, due to this front that we thought would punch farther south not punching as far south and east as we thought it would. It’ll be interesting to see if the track shifts any farther west. Unlike Beryl, this storm is not expected to become a hurricane.

Picture8

RECORDS

Thank goodness this isn’t 1930! This day was a very hot, sultry day across Tennessee. In fact, this is one of the most oppressive heat waves on record. Remember, we’re not the only ones suffering at this time. This is the start of Dust Bowl era, after all.  The high at Nashville reached 99 degrees on July 6, after a morning low of 76. Many, many other places in Tennessee hit 100 or more degrees this day. Residential air conditioning was invented in the 1920s, but you can bet a great big silver dollar that most Tennesseans did not have access to such a luxury. Can you imagine how miserable it must have been?  And on top of the heat, folks in the cities were dealing with the harsh repercussions of the Great Depression. Keep in mind that by July 6, 1930 we were just a little over eight months past the great stock market crash.

Makes things today sound a little bit better, eh?

You all have a great day and a great weekend. I’ll be out knocking on doors again. If you need a campaign sign and you live in Mayland, Rinnie, or Woody just let me know. And if you live in an area frequently traveled by 7th District folks, I’d be glad to get you a sign as well. If you live in the 7th District you surely know by now I’d really appreciate your vote of support (ha). If you don’t live in this district but know someone who does, let ’em know who they should vote for (Baldwin!). Early voting starts one week from today! Let’s change things up and get some good things accomplished for both the 7th district and Cumberland County!

Leave a Reply