A rather short July heat wave

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MAIN THREATS

This week and weekend: Heat

Next week: Storms

SUMMARY

Look for increasing heat and humidity over the next several days. Be careful if you must be outside during the afternoons. Friday and Saturday look like the hotter of the next five days. Our storm chances will be very low, but whenever heat and humidity start climbing up in July you can never totally count out an isolated afternoon or evening storm.

The pattern begins to change by Sunday and this heat wave will break down. It will still be very warm, but showers and storms will keep us from getting as hot as we would otherwise be. We’ve seen this active pattern all summer, and it doesn’t look to break any time soon. Some of the storms early next week could be strong to even severe, with damaging winds the main threat. And, as always, storms this time of year can produce frequent lightning and torrential rainfall.

July is not looking dry, folks, so I don’t foresee any drought conditions any time soon!

Below is the precipitation outlook for next week. Notice we are well within the above-average zone.

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DISCUSSION

While we have a lot of heat to contend with in the short term, the long term outlooks are not looking all that hot, and they’re certainly not looking dry! We have found ourselves in these “northwest flow” regimes quite often this summer. Normally, we only see this pattern set up a couple times or so in the early summer, but this year’s pattern is a bit anomalous. Usually, this upper-level flow pattern has migrated well to the north of us by July and mainly affects the Great Lakes region and New England. But, every year is different and this year is setting up to give us a wetter-than-normal summer. Will this continue into the fall? That remains to be seen.

Next week’s pattern is one that often brings us widespread showers and storms, especially during the afternoons. It’s a bit too far off to tell for sure, but models are suggesting that some rather vigorous disturbances may drop out of the Midwest on us in the early to middle portions of next week. Should that happen, we could be looking at some potent storms from time to time.

This is the type of pattern we really have to watch out for because we can get storm systems that we call derechos. These are squall lines that develop and produce a lot of straight-line wind damage this time of year. Again, normally this threat is well north of us by this time of year, but we have had these events in July before. In fact, tomorrow is the 14th anniversary of a derecho that hit our county. The damage was impressive and some folks were without power for days. I’ll have more on this event in tomorrow’s blog!

I’m not saying we’ll get anything like that next week, but it is a pattern that I’ll have to keep an eye on for ya, just in case.

TROPICS

The tropics continue to be active, but there are no threats to the U.S. mainland. Hurricane Chris has now been downgraded to a tropical storm, as his winds have dropped to 70 mph. This happens as these storms spin off into the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic.

Right on his heels is good ole Beryl, or the remnants of his former self. The remnants  of what was Hurricane Beryl continue to remain disorganized but that disorganized mess of showers and storms is about to move into a post-Chris environment that is more favorable for tropical systems. Therefore, there is a good chance that Beryl will re-form. Should that occur, we will continue to refer to the system as “Beryl”, even though he has gone through this extended time  period of not having a name.

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RECORDS 

Whew! Let me tell ya, folks, we can have some impressive heat this time of year! Dang… On this day in 1914, Byrdstown set a July record high of 101 degrees. That is impressive for any location located on the Cumberland Plateau. Can you imagine what it must have been like off the plateau?! On this day in 1930, Clarksville, TN hit 110 degrees, which is a record July high for them. That 1930 heat wave was one of the most oppressive heat waves in Tennessee history. Remember, this was the Dust Bowl era and a significant portion of our country was in the thralls of an incredible heat wave and drought. Finally, on this day in 1930, Livingston hit 108 degrees, setting an all-time July high temperature.

I guess we could say today’s record theme is HOT!

For perspective, we are currently 70 degrees and expecting a high in the low to mid 80s today. I think we can handle that, don’t you?

You all have a great day and don’t forget early voting starts tomorrow! Remember Baldwin! He’s bald and he wins! 🙂

 

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