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A very pleasant Wednesday coming

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MAIN THREATS

Mon-Tues: Possible strong storms

Friday: strong to severe storms possible

SUMMARY

We’ll have scattered showers and storms around all day again today, with some of those storms being capable of gusty winds, small hail, and torrential rainfall. As always, be mindful of the frequent lightning. Tomorrow, we’ll do it all over again. Today and tomorrow are not the best days to have any outdoor plans.

We’re already seeing some showers on the plateau, and we’ve seen one complex of storms drop into Middle TN early this morning out of the Midwest. That particular activity continues to drop south.

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The culprit behind these showers and storms is a cold front that will be passing through here Tuesday evening. Behind that front, a very pleasant airmass will settle in! That means we’ll have a Wednesday that features low humidity. That will be welcome! Wednesday and Thursday both look really good for any outdoor activities. That 30% chance of rain on Thursday may need to be removed, so don’t let that bother you too much. I may also need to lower that Wednesday night low temperature, as well.  Wednesday night should be ideal for star gazing!

By Friday, things start to change as another cold front drops in. Any time a cold front makes it this far south this time of year we have to watch for strong storms, and I’ll be doing just that!

DISCUSSION

After we get through these showers and storms today, we are in for some really nice weather on Wednesday, folks. I would say that we had better take advantage of it, as fronts like this are rather rare in July, but it looks like the front that we have coming for Friday will also push to our south and bring us nice weather to end the weekend (fingers crossed!). It’s too far out to say with much certainty that Sunday will be as nice as this coming Wednesday, but considering the way this summer is going I wouldn’t be surprised to see this come to fruition.

Models are indicating that Friday could be quite active. Models will likely change, but this morning they show a favorable setup for strong to severe storms on Friday. I’ll keep an eye on that. For now, just consider this a “heads up” if you have outdoor plans for Friday.

TROPICS

All is quite in the tropics. The easterly flow from Africa that steers the storms across the Atlantic contains a lot of Saharan dust. This isn’t all that unusual. The desert dust from north Africa sometimes gets into the easterly, tropical winds (the trade winds) and that really suppresses tropical development. What is unusual is that some of that dust has managed to make it all the way to Oklahoma! That is wild. Thankfully, NOAA has embarked on an ambitious new research project this summer and they are studying the behavior of the dust and the impacts it has on tropical development. I’m anxious to see the results of that study!

RECORDS

On this day in 1980, Crossville recorded a high temperature of 101 degrees! This was the first time in history that Crossville had ever officially recorded a triple digit temperature. Can you even imagine how hot it must have been off this plateau!? This was quite the heat wave and for the next several days Crossville breaks record highs that were set in 1980 (along with many other TN locations).

Looking across the nation…

On this day in 1920, a severe hailstorm stripped the foliage and bark  off trees in Antelope and Boone counties in Nebraska. The hail destroyed people’s roofs, and it was reported that every window facing north was shattered. I bet that was a wild ride!

This reminds me of a story that I saw last week, published by NASA, showing hail scars in South Dakota. Whenever a catastrophic weather event occurs, the damage to the trees and vegetation shows up on satellite. The dying foliage is much warmer than the lush, green neighboring foliage and you can see the “scars” on satellite left behind by the weather event that caused the damage.

I’ve seen this with strong tornadoes. The scars spotted by NASA satellites in South Dakota, however, were too wide to be produced by tornadoes. They investigated the matter and it turns out that these scars were the result of severe hailstorms in that area on June 27th. The vegetation has been destroyed and now you can clearly see the temperature differences across the landscape.

Below are these images from early July, showing the hail scars from June storms in South Dakota. The hail, at times, was the size of grapefruit.

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In the image below, you can see the vegetation has been stripped, leaving the landscape looking brown on satellite, as opposed to the green vegetation surrounding the hail scars.

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You all have a great day and keep an eye out for any storms that pop up!

 

 

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