The good news is that the rest of the afternoon and early evening is looking good for the plateau. The bad news is that the sunshine and lack of t-storm activity has allowed us to warm to near 90 degrees, with a dewpoint continuing to rise (currently at 71 degrees). That means it is very very hot and humid outside. The fuel for storms is certainly available.
Currently, a tornado watch is in effect for central Kentucky until 8:00 p.m. Those of us on the TN side of the Cumberland Plateau shouldn’t have to worry about those particular storms.
A disturbance in Missouri is expected to lead to rapid and explosive t-storm development this evening across West TN. As those storms organize and intensify, they will develop into a squall line. It’s this squall line that we have to watch out for later on. I originally gave a timeline of 9:00 – 3:00 a.m. I still think that’s valid, though we may be looking closer to midnight for those storms. Once the line develops, we’ll be able to time it better.
The NWS Nashville will be releasing a special weather balloon at 4:00 p.m. to give us a better sense of what is going on in our atmosphere right now. That will be very helpful! Normally, balloons are released twice a day…once at 7:00 a.m. and again at 7:00 p.m.
I’ll be on Facebook all evening and I’ll be updating the blog at meteorologistmark.com, as well.
The Storm Prediction Center just issued their latest convective update and we remain in the enhanced risk. I did notice they’ve increased our hail threat a bit, so be aware of that.
You all have a good evening and let me know if you have any questions.