A threat of storms

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Main Threats

No major threats to mention.

Summary

We should see a very similar day today to what we saw yesterday. You’ll hear some thunder rumbling during the afternoon, and some of you may even get some rain. The same will be true tomorrow. Just be aware that storms this time of year tend to produce a lot of lightning, as well as heavy downpours of rain.

By Wednesday, the rain and storm chances pick up and those better storm chances will be with us through Thursday. This is as another cold front slips into our neck of the woods. Right now, widespread severe weather, including flooding, does not look likely. However, any storm that forms could certainly be strong.

By Friday, the storm chances should drop off a bit as the front slips just to our south. That front will begin moving north again, but that may not happen until the end of the weekend. When that happens, storm chances will once again increase to likely.

Discussion

Thankfully, the front coming in for the middle of this week does not have a lot of upper level support. That means that storms will not be able to become as strong/severe as they could otherwise have become. Never the less, we have more than enough heat and humidity to fuel storms and some of the more organized storms could certainly become strong and even briefly severe.

The unsettled weather will once again keep temperatures from becoming too hot this week.

I will briefly mention that we have a complex of showers and storms just to our north this morning. That activity is moving east and away from us. It is the reason we are so clear this morning, as it is taking all the energy from our atmosphere right now. Outflow boundaries from these storms may kick off new storms near us later on this afternoon.

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Tropics

We still don’t have much to talk about on the Atlantic side, but there is certainly enough to talk about on the Pacific side! The system on the Atlantic side continues to just spin about out in the Atlantic. It will be no threat to the U.S. mainland and may not even become a named storm.

On the Pacific side, we have major Hurricane Hector that is moving westward. It is moving toward the Hawaiian islands but it is expected to weaken and move just south of the islands. Any deviation to the north could mean some rough weather for the islands, so that is being monitored very closely. Keep in mind, they are still dealing with the eruption of Kilauea.

You may be surprised to learn that direct impacts from hurricanes on the Hawaiian islands is quite rare. It’s not impossible, but it’s not common. The worst hurricane to ever strike the state hit on September 11, 1992, on the final day of filming of Jurassic Park. Of all times, right?  That storm had wind gusts of 225 mph, according to anemometers on the island.

Hurricane Iniki hit just weeks after a category 5 hurricane, Andrew, hit south Florida. Andrew was one of only three cat 5s to ever strike our country since records have been kept. The other two were the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 (FL keys) and Hurricane Camille of 1969 (MS coast).

Below is a graphic showing paths of hurricanes in the Hawaii region from 1949-2017. Notice most of the islands have never been hit.

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And this is Hector’s projected path. Hopefully it will stay south of the islands.

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And there’s more where this came from. Look how active the eastern Pacific is right now!

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Whenever the eastern Pacific is active, the Atlantic tends to be quite. This is because the rising motion of the air over the eastern Pacific usually leads to sinking air over the Atlantic basin. What goes up, must come down. The reverse of this is true also. This is a very simplistic explanation but that’s basically what happens.

Records

This is one of those records where I had to read it twice. I am skeptical, but you never know! On this day in 1890, hail storms struck Adair and Union Counties in Iowa. Four inches of hail accumulated and drifted into six foot high mounds. It was reported that hail remained on the ground in some places for 26 days. I’m not sure about that, but I wasn’t there, so who knows? (ha) Twenty-six days is a long time for ice to stay around…..

You all have a great day and try and stay cool!

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