Very unsettled weather

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Main Threats

No widespread hazardous is expected, though storms over the next few days could become locally strong, or even briefly severe.

Summary

We have entered a very unsettled pattern. I’m already noticing those big cumulus clouds going up out there this morning. We have a front that will be flirting with us over the next few days and that should be enough to kick off showers and storms. Today looks to be our wettest day, but there will be scattered showers and storms around for the next week or so. These will mainly be in the afternoons and evenings.

This is the radar at 8:35 this morning, showers isolated showers/storms across Middle TN, but a much larger band of showers/storms approaching Nashville. All activity is moving east, northeast.

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I lowered rain chances a bit for Thursday, due to the anticipation of showers and storms in the morning hours. If those don’t pan out, our chances for a storm in the afternoon will have to be raised to 50%.

These unsettled patterns we keep finding ourselves in have kept our lawns green this summer and have kept that July and August heat at bay.

Discussion

Thankfully, this front that will be flirting with us is rather weak. However, when we accumulate that August heat and humidity it doesn’t take much to kick off a shower or storm. I don’t foresee any widespread severe weather chances anytime soon, but some of those storms can pack a punch for a time. You know the drill…..frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Some of the strongest storms may even produce some small hail.

The outlook for the second half of August looks like much of the same, with below average temperatures and above average precipitation.

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Tropics

The Atlantic remains quiet. We have Tropical Storm Debby but she is wayyyy out in the Atlantic and spinning off to the north.

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On the Pacific side,  Major Hurricane Hector is the big news of the day. Thankfully, that monster storm is spinning to the south of Hawaii. They are expecting enough of an effect to justify them being placed under a tropical storm warning. They’re lucky, though. Had this storm made landfall on the Big Island of Hawaii it would have been catastrophic. Our nation dodged a big bullet here, folks.

Look at that impressive symmetry and crystal clear eye! That is what a powerful hurricane looks like on satellite, ladies and gentlemen.

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And, thankfully, that beast is spinning to the south of Hawaii.

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When you consider how enormous the Pacific Ocean is, this really was a close call for Hawaii. I circled the Hawaiian islands.

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Records

Yesterday I talked about the heat wave that was underway for us during this week of 1930. It really kicked up on August 8th! Carthage and Lebanon broke all-time record highs of 111 degrees. I think those records still stand today. Allardt hit 102 and that record only stood until 1936, when they hit 104 degrees. Incidentally, the 1930s were a very hot/stormy decade for Tennessee!

Cookeville hit 105 degrees on August 8th and temps over 100 were widespread across the state. The Crossville Experiment Station hit 99 degrees. Interestingly, Crossville never officially hit 100 degrees during this whole multi-week extreme heat wave. In fact, Crossville’s first officially recorded triple-digit high wouldn’t come until July 16, 1980.

Totally switching gears…..

On this day in 1882 a ship on Lake Michigan reported that the temperature dropped and that temp drop was followed by a big burst of snow and slush. The wet snow accumulated to half a foot on the ship deck. Some locations along the shoreline of Lake Michigan reported snow showers with no accumulation. Locations in these areas are normally in the 80s this time of year! (if  not hotter!)

News

I’ve been noticing several news outlets airing live coverage of the fire in Riverside County, California this morning. It’s a monster fire and it is expected to only get worse. While we’ve been enjoying a pleasant summer, they have been experiencing a very hot and dry summer. This has led to numerous wildfires and they are now expecting their worst wildfire season on record, unless trends dramatically change. Our hearts go out to all those affected by these wildfires.

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You all have a good day.

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