A pleasant forecast period….for us

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Main Threats

No major threats in sight….for us

Summary

We are on track for a very pleasant stretch of weather. The only “fly in the ointment” would be some possible isolated showers on Thursday (maybe a storm?). The same is true for Friday. Most of us will stay dry this week.

Depending on the track of Florence, Saturday may be a breezy but dry day. The only impact of Florence up to that point would be some breezy conditions.

Tropics

All eyes remain on a very powerful and dangerous Hurricane Florence. She has weakened slightly to 140 mph (still cat 4), but this weakening trend is temporary. Hurricanes go through eyewall replacement cycles. For whatever reason, the eye collapses and is replaced by a new one. It’s a cycle that we do not fully understand. It’s similar to how tornadoes often cycle with supercells. One touches down, stays on the ground a while, then lifts, only to be replaced in time by a new tornado. It’s a cycle and we don’t understand these cycles very well.

When a hurricane goes through an eyewall replacement cycle two things tend to happen. Initially, the hurricane weakens as the cycle takes place. Then, the hurricane restrengthens with the new eye, and sometimes the hurricane is even stronger with this new eye. If that happens, and many of us think it will, Florence will become a very rare category 5 hurricane, with winds greater than 155 mph.

That does not mean she will come ashore as a cat 5. That has only happened three times in recorded U.S. hurricane history. The Florida Keys hurricane of 1935, Camille in 1969, and Andrew in 1992 are the only cat 5s to have hit the U.S. mainland. Florence is expected to weaken before landfall, but we’re not sure if that will make her a cat 4 or cat 3. If she makes landfall with winds greater than 130 mph, which is certainly possible, she will be the strongest hurricane ever recorded to make landfall in North Carolina. That is alarming.

Florence has doubled in physical size since yesterday. That is also alarming. This means her effects will be far-reaching and well beyond the center of circulation. Flooding will be catastrophic and unlike anything many places in the Carolinas and Virginia have ever seen.  With hurricanes, it’s not about the wind, folks, it’s all about the water. I still have no idea why we focus on the wind so much when it’s the inland flooding that always steals the headlines and kills the most people.

I’ll be tracking Florence. Right now, we’re looking for landfall near the Outer Banks Thursday night.

She sure is something to see on satellite this morning.

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She’s not alone…

We have another disturbance entering the southern Gulf today and that, too, will likely become a tropical storm or hurricane as it crosses the Gulf and heads for Texas. Let’s hope the headlines are not so stolen by Florence that no one pays attention to this one in the Gulf. It will be Joyce if it becomes a named storm. That is the area of cloudiness you see in the satellite image above in the southern Gulf.

That’s not all…

There’s still Isaac. He has been downgraded to a tropical storm as he moves toward the Caribbean. He’s one to keep an eye on, too.

Then there’s Hurricane Helene. She’s on track to become a major hurricane today, as she spins out to sea.

There’s more…

We now have another disturbance that will likely become a tropical storm today or tomorrow. It’s way out in the Atlantic but it is moving southwest. God forbid this system gets steered inland by Florence.

That’s about as busy as the map gets, folks. We are indeed in the peak of hurricane season.

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Special Announcement

Due to Florence and her tremendous impact expected in the U.S., weatherTAP will be absolutely FREE this week and weekend. This will allow anyone access to everything they could possibly need to track Florence and stay safe. The username is Florence, as well as the password. Please let me know if you have any questions. This offer starts now.

Records

Nashville recorded their latest 100-degree temperature on this day in 1983. That is HOT for this late in September!

On this day in 1989 a hail storm in the mountains of California caused quite the stir. The hail accumulated to two inches in depth (it was small hail) and that made roads slick and hazardous. This resulted in a 20-car pile-up near Donner Summit.

News

Today is, of course, September 11th. I pulled up the weather map for that day in 2001. High pressure was in control and skies were big, blue and beautiful. It was supposed to be an absolutely beautiful fall-like day.

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#neverforget

You all have a great day. I’ll keep you posted on the tropics!

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