A major hurricane to hit the coast?

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Main threats

Wednesday: Heavy rainfall and strong storms

Summary

All eyes are on the Gulf and the impact Hurricane Michael will have there. More on that in the Tropical section below.

For us, we’ll be dealing with isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening.

Tomorrow looks pretty good, with sunny and warm conditions. That will be the calm before a patter-changing storm system arrives.

The hot and humid weather we have enjoyed (right?) will come to an end on Wednesday. A strong fall-like cold front will march across our area and bring widespread showers and storms. Some of the storms could be strong. Heavy rainfall is also possible. That rain will continue on Thursday.

Check out that high temperature on Thursday! And look at those morning lows! That cool weather will continue right on through the weekend and we may even get cooler than that next week! Dare I say we may have our first frost next week?  I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility. More details on that later on.

Tropics

The tropics are the subject of the day! Tropical Storm Michael rapidly intensified yesterday and last night and is now almost a hurricane. He will be a hurricane by this afternoon. This means adjustments to the intensity have been changed and it is now looking like Michael will be a strong hurricane when it reaches the Gulf Coast. It’s now possible that Michael could be a major, category 3, hurricane at landfall. That is nothing to mess around with, folks.

What is concerning is that wind shear didn’t keep Michael from intensifying last night. Conditions only get more favorable for him as we go through today, leading to more intensification.

Here is the latest forecast path. Both the path and intensity could change. So, stay tuned. Notice on the map below that hurricane watches are now in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast. Also note that the eastern coast of the Southeast may be affected, too. Even areas recovering from Florence in the Carolinas may be getting a tropical storm from this.

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Here are the estimated arrival times of winds.

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This is the map showing the greatest wind threats.

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And the all-to-important rainfall forecast. Notice the Carolinas are in for another soaking. They really don’t need that!

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So, how does this storm affect us here on the plateau? I think our effects will be very minimal. Remember that big cold front coming Wednesday? That thing is going to shove this storm away from us, significantly reducing the impacts here.

If you know someone vacationing along the Gulf Coast right now, please make sure they are aware of how serious this storm could be. Could it not strengthen and just be a tropical storm at landfall? Of course. Could it strengthen further and be a major hurricane at landfall? Absolutely. The bad thing is that models and forecasters are much easier to convince of the worst-case scenario than the best-cast scenario. If I were down there today I would be leaving by noon today. The last thing you want is to be stuck in traffic with everyone else trying to leave.

As for those of you on the East Coast, pay attention to this storm. The impacts there will be determined by the strength at which Michael makes landfall in Florida.

Let’s all hope for the best with this storm.

Records

I thought you could use a cool record for today and I sure did find you one! It’s a cool record both literally and figuratively (ha).

On this date in 1982 an early-season, very unusual snow storm struck Wyoming and South Dakota. The snowstorm produced winds up to 70 mph and some locations ended up with over 50 inches of snow! How awesome would that be right now? ha

The snow was very terrain-dependent, with Rapid City receiving only a trace of snow, while mountainous areas 20 miles away reported 54 inches. And we thought terrain made a difference with snowfall here on the plateau!

News

You all be sure and have a great day. Please continue to remember my family. Granny remains in hospice care, where she is resting so comfortably.

Also remember my dad as we continue to try to find answers for his dizziness. If the MRI is inconclusive this week (as I’m pretty sure it will be) we will have satisfied the last test necessary before a referral to Vanderbilt. We have nothing but confidence in that hospital and we look forward to getting there and getting answers.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns about Micheal. I’ll be glad to help you out.

 

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