A not-so-scary Halloween forecast

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!

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Main Threats

Thursday: Strong storms and heavy downpours of rain. Winds will also be quite gusty throughout the day.

Summary

Look for mostly cloudy skies for your Halloween, with occasional peaks of the sun. It will be a mostly dry day, though we can’t rule out a very isolated shower or sprinkle. The greatest chance for rain will hold off until Thursday morning.

For Thursday, expect rain and storms. We will also have some very gusty south winds, regardless of storms. The bulk of the rain moves out Thursday night and that will leave us with cloudy skies for our Friday. Another disturbance swinging through will offer a chance of cold rain showers both Friday and Friday night.

Partly cloudy skies look to be in store for us for the weekend. However, this forecast is ever-changing, as is the case with the change of seasons.

This is the updated rainfall forecast for Middle TN from this system. Models are trending drier for this system.

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Flash flood watches are well to our west and north. I noticed that the NWS is considering dropping some counties from this watch, if models continue to trend drier.

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Things are looking good for trick-or-treaters tonight!

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Discussion

The system bringing us our next chance of rain and storms continues to slow down. This bodes well for us, as it puts the best chance of strong storms coming in the morning hours of Thursday. That is the time of day when we tend to be the coolest and most stable. That should limit severe thunderstorm potential. If, however, we can become a bit more unstable our chances for strong storms will increase. That chance is extremely low, so don’t worry too much about it. The wind fields are perfect for severe weather, but we may just be too cool and stable when storms arrive for them to really tap into that wind shear.

Another thing that is saving us is that this system is expected to produce widespread heavy rain and storms along the Gulf Coast. I’ve seen that scenario rob us of moisture many times in the past. It also robs us of storm potential. Don’t be surprised if we end up getting the lower-end of that 0.5-1 inch forecast rainfall.

We will have another chance for strong to severe storms nearly next week with yet another potent storm system. Remember, our secondary peak in severe weather comes in the fall months, though it’s often not nearly as significant as our spring severe weather season.

The NWS Nashville had this to say in their hazardous weather outlook this morning:

“Thursday through Tuesday: A few strong to possibly severe storms cannot be ruled out Thursday morning. Damaging winds and maybe a brief tornado are possible south of I-40.  Another strong storm system is expected to affect Middle Tennessee Monday or Tuesday of next week, with more locally heavy rainfall possible and potentially some strong to severe storms.”

Tropics

Hurricane Oscar has weakened to a cat 1 hurricane, with winds of 75 mph. He continues to spin harmlessly out to sea.

Records

Today is the anniversary of Hurricane Sandy bringing a winter storm to the Appalachians. This, folks, is the closest we have ever come (as far as I know) to having a snowstorm in October. As we all know, Sandy was an odd storm. As she moved up the Carolina coast she threw moisture over the southern Appalachians. This moisture combined with colder air that was moving in behind a cold front. The combination led to quite the winter storm. I still remember when we were about a week out from Sandy doing this and models were showing heavy snow on the plateau. How wild would that have been? If Sandy had must moved a bit farther west, who knows?

The NWS Morristown, which covers the TN side of the mountains, had this to share this morning. Notice the heavy snow fell above 1,500 feet. We’re around 2,000 feet on the plateau.

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And who can forget our snow in 2014 here on the plateau? That was a bizarre Halloween!

Anyone else remember the snow we had on Halloween of 1993? We got about an inch or so that evening and it was SO cold. I guess you could say we are finally into the time of year when we just might get some snowflakes with any of these cold fronts. Bring it on, Ma Nature, bring it on!!!

Almanac

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The above data is gathered from the Crossville airport.

Our low this morning here at WeatherTAP was 53.7 at 6:53 a.m.

We are running about 10″ above normal here at WeatherTAP for precipitation for 2018. The Airport is running 15″ above normal.

News

So, for Halloween I figured I would share something really spooky and meteorological. This comes from when Hurricane Matthew was making landfall in Haiti in 2016. Many folks claimed they could see a skull in the satellite image. Can you see it? Spooky

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You all have a Happy Halloween!



			
		

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