Wind and Rain

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Main Threats

Today: strong winds and heavy downpours of rain. Stronger storms should stay south of I-40 across TN.

Monday: Another round of strong to severe storms? (watching it closely)

Summary

For today, expect widespread showers and thunderstorms to come riding in on these winds this morning. Some gusts could reach 35-45 mph. If we get some storms going on the plateau, winds could easily gusts to 50 mph or so within those storms. The rain will be heavy at times, but this system is progressive enough (not moving too slowly) to keep our flood threat low. It will be a very mild day for this time of year.

By tomorrow, the cooler air behind this front will be filtering in and we will likely stay in the 40s all day. A quick moving system will also bring isolated to scattered showers across the plateau. Those showers/sprinkles will continue into the evening hours, as temps drop into the mid to upper 30s. Tomorrow is another hot chocolate day!

The weekend is looking really good! We’ll see some sunshine and mild temps. It will be a good time to get out and look at the fall colors. At the rate we’re going, this may be the last good weekend for fall colors. The wind and rain of today and next week will likely do a number on the changing leaves.

Another potent storm system moves in early next week. Models have been rather consistent in showing this system being a severe weather maker for the Southeast. Whether or not that means we will see severe weather on the plateau remains to be seen (it’s just a bit too early yet to tell).

Tornado watches are the yellow-shaded counties in Alabama. That threat should stay south of TN today. Flood watches are the dark green-shaded counties from Kentucky to Ohio.

WARN_REG_SOUTHEAST-SVR

Discussion

We are very fortunate to not be any warmer or more unstable than we are today. Our wind fields would easily support tornadoes, but we just don’t have the right conditions to allow storms to get strong enough to tap into that wind energy. I still wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two tornado warnings issued for southern parts of TN today, but I think we’ll stay o.k. here on the plateau.

Unfortunately, another system very similar to this one will be threatening us early next week. Models are suggesting we will be more unstable and that could allow storms to tap into that wind energy that will be in place. I’ll keep an eye on it. So far, the Storm Prediction Center is saying there are too many uncertainties with that system to outline a threat area….yet. Keep in mind that November is part of our secondary severe weather season here. This is an excerpt from this morning’s very lengthy discussion from them concerning this upcoming event…. “Both solutions suggest a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Southeast and southern to central Appalachian Mountains. The magnitude of the threat would be determined by several factors which the models can not yet pin down.” I’ll keep you posted.

Tropics

All is quiet. Hurricane season ends the very last day of this month, November 30th.

Records

On this day in 1870 the first weather report was sent from the new weather office in Nashville! The report was sent by telegraph. That office had been established on October 20th by U.S. Army Signal Corp Sergeant George H. Witmer. The office was at 70 1/2 Cherry Street (between Church Street and Union Street) in downtown Nashville. At that time, Nashville was one of only 24 newly-established locations to take and transmit weather observations via telegraph. The office was equipped with a wind vane, anemometer (measures wind speed), and a rain gage that were all well exposed on the roof of the building. Admittedly, that’s not the best location in the world, but I suppose that’s the only option they had.

Sergeant Witmer was relieved of his duties at the new office on January 31 of the next year (1871). He was accused of being intoxicated on the job and that led to his dismissal. He was succeeded by Sergeant W. Moore. Unfortunately, Moore was dismissed by February 10th because of, you guessed it, drunkenness.

The office was then taken over by Sergeant Thomas L. Watson. He managed the weather station until August 4th when he was dismissed for failing to transmit hi mail reports promptly. I shutter to think of why he couldn’t get those reports out correctly, but surely to goodness it wasn’t because of drunkenness! (the report doesn’t say)

And you thought good help was hard to find today? Ha!

Almanac

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This morning’s low has been 60 degrees, recorded at 8:20. Our highest wind gust so far has been 32 mph and that was recorded at 8:45 a.m. (just minutes ago!).

You all have a great day! Stay dry and hold on to your hats!

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