Main Threats
Monday-Tuesday: Severe thunderstorms, especially Monday night. All modes of severe weather are possible, including tornadoes.
Summary
Today is looking pretty darn good! Get outside as much as you can.
Tomorrow, a weak front will be moving through and it could set off a shower or sprinkle. It will also kick up the winds. Expect gust to 25 mph or so as the front comes through. Make note of this is you plan to be out in the woods. Watch those loose branches! The better chance of showers should come Sunday night.
By Monday, our eyes will turn to the next big storm system. The potential exists for strong to severe t-storms to move in here mainly in the overnight hours of Monday. That rain should stick around through most of the day Tuesday. Expect windy conditions again on Tuesday as the pattern changes.
Cooler, better weather settles in here for Wednesday.
Discussion
The scenario for Monday night continues to look bleak. All modes of severe weather still look possible, including isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting a portion of the Lower Mississippi River Valley in an enhanced severe wx threat for Monday. That activity will move northeast as we go through the evening hours, hopefully weakening as it approaches the plateau.
Below is the severe weather outlook for Monday. It’s unusual to see the SPC use the enhanced outlook (orange area) three days out from an event. This means that they will likely upgrade portions of that area to a moderate risk as we get closer to Monday. The yellow area is the slight risk and that includes the plateau. Storms will be moving east-northeast, so we have to watch what is going on in northern Alabama/southern Middle TN very closely.
Records
On the morning of November 3, 1966, the Cumberland Plateau woke up to 15+ inches of snow. That’s over a foot of snow! The first week of November! I’m not sure I could handle that but I’d sure like to try and see! ha Snowfall totals all across Middle TN were around a foot. Southeast KY had nearly two feet. What a storm.
Article
Here is an article I recently had published in the Fentress Courier about the ring you sometimes see around the moon at night. I hope you enjoy it!
Ring Around the Moon
This is the time of year when our clearer night skies offer some of the best stargazing opportunities. The hazy nights of summer clear out with the passage of an autumn cold front, which sweeps away all the haziness and leaves nothing but a clear night sky in its wake.
One of the most intriguing phenomenons of the night sky is the “ring around the moon” that is often seen this time of year. Weather folklore states that the ring is a sign of the coming of unsettled weather; the onset of rain or snow is often expected within 24 hours of seeing the ring.
The science behind the ring around the moon supports that folklore. As a storm system develops to our southwest, moisture often gets caught up in the fast winds of the jet stream overhead. Those winds will scatter ice crystals across our skies, well ahead of the coming storm system.
Winds up at 20,000 feet and higher are not slowed by the friction of the earth’s surface, therefore moisture often arrives at that level first, riding on these faster winds. The moisture then eventually works its way down to the surface and we see precipitation fall.
Those crystals reflect the light of the moon in a fashion that produces a circle of light around the moon. The result is a ring of light around the moon.
Since the ice crystals high in the atmosphere come before a storm system, we can usually expect precipitation to fall within about 24 hours of seeing the ring around the moon.
So, the next time you head out stargazing be sure and look for a ring around the moon. Nature gives us hints of coming weather changes every day, be sure you don’t miss them!
Final Note
With the threat of severe weather coming Monday night, go ahead and take a little time today to review your severe weather plan. Where will you go if a warning is issued? Do your kids know what to do? Just polish up your plan and be ready for any severe weather that may ever come, not just Monday night’s threat. People let their guard down this time of year but they shouldn’t . Severe weather can happen in our neck of the woods in any month (and it has!). There are already indications that we may be dealing with more strong storms the end of next week, too. Remember, we are in our secondary peak of severe weather season.
You all have a great weekend and get out and look at the fall colors. They sure are pretty.