Main Threats

Tonight: Strong to severe thunderstorms. All modes of severe weather are possible, including tornadoes.

Summary

Today will be mostly cloudy, but we will likely see some sun from time to time. Hopefully, we won’t see too much sun because that would just warm us up and make us more unstable for tonight’s storms.

Tonight, we will be looking to our west and watching a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms take shape. That line should reach the plateau after midnight. The line will be capable of producing damaging, straight-line winds to 70+ mph and heavy downpours of rain. There is also the possibility of a spin-up tornadoes embedded within this line. Please make sure you have a reliable weather source that will wake you up if  a warning is issued in the overnight hours.

The front quickly clears the area Tuesday morning and we should even see some sun by lunch time.

Another system moves in for Wednesday-Friday, bringing more rain chances and maybe even a thunderstorm when another strong cold front passes through Friday. Temps will drop quickly behind this front. The weekend ahead is looking chilly and we should see our first hard freeze of the season both Saturday and Sunday mornings. The mountains of East TN may even see some snowflakes Saturday morning!

This is a graphic the NWS Nashville put out this morning showing the timing of the arrival of storms.

This is the outlook put out last night at midnight. Little changed with the 7:00 a.m. update but the enhanced was extended a bit closer to Cookeville. Note the chance of large hail is minimal, as is flooding. 

The NWS Morristown, which covers all areas east of Cumberland and Fentress County, put out this graphic this morning. Note that times are in eastern time.

Discussion

As is often the case, the plateau is on the edge of the worst of the worst severe weather potential today. All eyes will be on West TN and northern Mississippi this afternoon. That is when we think some supercells may develop, capable of producing tornadoes. I don’t think we have to worry about any of those cells threatening us, thank goodness, but we will be interested in how all that activity organizes into a squall line later this evening. It will be this line that we will take interest in and watch as it marches toward the plateau in the overnight hours.

All modes of severe weather are possible, including tornadoes. The greatest risk for a tornado outbreak will be found to our west and south, but we are right on the edge of that activity. The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center, issued at 7:00 am., keeps us just to the northeast of the greatest threat. Keep in mind that all activity will be moving northeast.

Our current dewpoint is 52 degrees here in Crossville. Dewpoints greater than 50 are often necessary for strong storms. We look for dewpoints greater than 60 to get severe weather, typically. So, I’ll be watching this dewpoint as we go through the day. Dewpoint is a measure of the amount of moisture in the air. Since moisture is fuel for storms, we have to keep an eye on that variable, for sure.

I don’t have to remind you that November can bring some potent storms to the plateau. Many of us will never forget November 10, 2002. That was the night the strongest and deadliest tornado in Cumberland County history hit. This is not the same setup that we had that night, but it serves as a reminder that we are in our secondary peak of severe weather season and we can’t take these things too lightly.

This will be in the overnight hours. If you live in a trailer, mobile home, etc and you have neighbors that have more substantial housing, make sure they know you may come knocking on their door tonight, looking for shelter.

Review that severe weather safety plan now. What will you do if the lights go out and severe weather is approaching? Do you have multiple sources to warn you? Can you still get info if the lights go out? Do you have a battery powered radio? A well-charged cell phone? Think about these things, just in case.

Tropics

All is quiet.

Records

All records for Tennessee for the next several days are about tornadoes. This is our secondary peak of tornado season, folks. While the spring severe weather season is longer (March-May) and tends to be quite active, the November season is nothing to take lightly. Yes, it is a shorter severe weather season, and it tends to be less dramatic than the spring season, but when we do get storms in November they can be quite rowdy.

Almanac

This morning’s low so far here at WxTAP has been 50.4 degrees at 3:48 a.m.

Our current dewpoint is 51.9 and rising.

News

So, I know this weather situation has some of you down. I’ll end on a lighter note. As some of you know, I ran the Cades Cove Loop Lope on Sunday. The weather was beautiful, though we almost froze to death waiting for it to start (ha). I tried to take some selfies, which is something I never do. The sun was too bright for me to really see what I was doing, so I had to wait until I got finished and in the shade to see what I had done. I think I will stick with NOT doing selfies. LOL

But, I did get some decent pics, all in all.

Final Note

There will be updates coming out all morning from the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center. The next full update from the Storm Prediction Center comes out at 10:30 a.m. and I will let you know what they say.

Let’s hope this squall line weakens before it reaches us. Never the less, let’s do our best to be prepared, just in case it’s still packing a punch when it reaches it.

And, you all know I’ll be up until the last storm has passed, no matter how late that may be. Does anyone know if there are any sales on coffee around town. Asking for a friend. 🙂

You all have a great day!  I’ll be here watching it all!