Winter is here

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Main Threats

Tonight: Freeze warning

Saturday night: Hard freeze conditions

Monday night: wintry precipitation

Tuesday night: Bitter cold temps

Summary

Yesterday, I told you that winter was knocking at the door. Now, it’s about to kick that door down. Notice that overnight lows are about to take a plunge. Tomorrow will be quite chilly, as well. We are not used to temperatures like this. Notice that next week’s morning lows drop into the mid teens, and that may be a bit on the warm side if we have any snow around.

Today, look for rain to continue up until about noon. Then we’ll be left with only sprinkles and falling temperatures. It will be noticeably cooler when you leave work this evening. Temps will be slow to recover on Saturday, even with sunshine. Most, if not all, of the day will be spent in the 30s. The last time we had a “coldest day of the season” was a Saturday, too. That was when we didn’t get out of the 40s. I think that was two weeks ago tomorrow?

Sunday looks decent, but we’ll be staring down the barrel of an even more potent cold front. This time, we’re dealing with an arctic front. That’s why lows will drop into the teens early next week. Moisture will build out ahead of the front in the form of rain for Monday. As the front moves through, any moisture left behind will turn to snow showers/flurries Monday night/Tuesday morning. Light accumulation isn’t out of the question. I think the bigger story may be those bitter cold nights. Brrrrr

Discussion

All eyes are on the Monday night chance for snow. It still looks like the bulk of the moisture will be gone before the really cold air settles in, but I still think our chances of seeing snowflakes is quite high. It’s certainly not uncommon to see the season’s first flurries/snow showers in November, so we’re on track for that. What isn’t so common is overnight lows in the mid teens. That’s very cold for November. Our normal low for this time of year is 40 degrees.

I’ll keep monitoring the situation for Monday night and I’ll post updates, as needed, throughout the weekend.

Can you tell it’s the change of seasons. Last weekend I was updating you all on the severe weather potential for Monday night. This weekend I’m updating you on the winter weather potential for Monday night. My work is never done (or boring!). Haha

Records

Yesterday, I talked about the first storm warning that was issued by what we call the National Weather Service today. I told you storms can get very intense up there. Today’s records prove my point.

On this day in 1913, a rapidly deepening low pressure system causes unpredicted gales on the Great Lakes. They called it the “Freshwater Fury.” Eight large ore carriers on Lake Erie sank, drowning 270 sailors. Cleveland, Ohio received 17.4 inches of snow in 24 hours from the system, along with 50 mph winds. One wind gust hit 79 mph (can you imagine the snow drifts?). Buffalo, New York had wind gusts to 80 mph and heavy snow. Farther south, Pickens, West Virginia picked up three feet of snow in the mountains! What a storm!

On this day in 1996 a storm deemed the Veteran’s Day storm was the most severe early-season lake-effect snow the Great Lakes has seen in 50 years. Damaging winds knocked out power to 160,000 customers. From the 9th through the 14th, snowfall totals reached 70 inches in some locations!!! Seventy inches! That’s almost six feet of snow. That’s more than half of what I want over the course of a whole winter! (ha).

Almanac

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News

Folks in California are once again dealing with horrific wildfires. Keep those folks close to your hearts. As you know, they’re also dealing with the shock of the mass shooting that took place there this week, too. It’s a rough week for California.

This was a photo captured yesterday near Chico, California. This apocalyptic scene is of a burned down church of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Saints. The fire danger remains high there again today.

Remember, it was only two years ago that drought and wind combined to bring us the big fires near Gatlinburg. I think we can deal with today’s rain and cold, don’t you? (photo by Scott Strazzante)

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The smoke from this fire was so intense that I was able to see it on weatherTAP’s satellite imagery yesterday! If you can play the video, notice that smoke plume in northern California.

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You all have a great day and I’ll keep you posted on our snow chances Monday night!

And don’t forget to stay warm tonight! The entire state of TN is under a freeze warning.

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