Special update on winter wx

This is one of those forecasts that makes you want to pull your hair out. For those of us with no hair, we just have to deal with it (ha).

First of all, I want to say that I don’t see us getting a winter storm this week. But, I can certainly see us getting some snow flakes in the air this week. The first chance for that may come in the morning. I’ve been watching moisture on radar this evening and I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a light rain/snow mix before noon tomorrow. Temps will be in the low to mid 30s when precip starts trying to move back in. That could be just cold enough to get some snowflakes mixed in. I’ll update all this in the morning. I don’t anticipate any travel probs. Sometimes precip will start as big wet snowflakes before changing to rain. That sure would be cool to see!

Then, a very cold rain settles in for Wednesday night. It’s hard to believe how close we’re already coming to big snows in November, but there is a darn big difference in a cold rain and 34 degrees and a “warm” snow at 32 degrees. Wednesday night looks like a cold rain.

As that system pulls out on Thursday, we should see some decent wrap-around snow showers come through. Wrap-around moisture is tricky to forecast. Sometimes there’s a lot of it and most of the time there’s very little of it. I’ll go with an in-between solution and say we should get some snow showers in here sometime Thursday. If those hang around late enough we might even get a dusting or so of snow out of that. Stay tuned.

Again, I don’t foresee a big winter storm for us this week, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see some snowflakes before week’s end. Stay tuned.

FYI, for those of you who are traveling west tomorrow (or know someone who is) be advised that West TN is under a winter weather advisory for up to an inch of snow. Farther north, in Missouri, a winter storm watch is in effect for several inches of snow.

I’ll have a full update in the morning, as well as some info that you may find interesting about system’s like the one we’ll be dealing with tomorrow!

The map below is current watches and advisories.

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The map below is what the model consensus yesterday showed for snow totals for Thursday evening.

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And this is what that model consensus says tonight about snow for Thursday evening. The models certainly stepped it up a notch or three, right? But, notice the heaviest snow stays back over southern Illinois.

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