So close, but no (snow) cigar

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Main Threats

Tonight: watch for any icy patches on bridges/overpasses.

Summary

If last night’s rain had been snow we would have over a foot of snow this morning.

How can it rain so much with temps so close to what we would need for snow? I just don’t know. As I drove home yesterday evening I noticed the car thermometer dropped to 33 as I pulled into the driveway. Those moments always make a weatherman nervous (ha). But, like clockwork the warm air began nudging back in ahead of this system and we ended up rising to 42 degrees before I went to bed.

Now, we are on the backside of the system and colder air is filtering back in. We are 35 degrees right now and we will slowly fall through the day. This will turn any of this leftover, light moisture to freezing drizzle/snowflakes as we get into the second half of our day. I don’t anticipate any major travel probs, but I’d be a little careful on the bridges and usual cold spots. It only takes one slick spot to ruin your day! I still think we could get up to a dusting of snow accumulation, at most.

By tomorrow, this wintry pattern breaks and we are all set for a really nice weekend. Clouds may begin to increase later Sunday but I think any shower chances will hold off until well after dark.

If you have wanted some good weather to get outside and do some yard work or hiking Saturday is your day!

Discussion

These upper-level lows are tricky to forecast but, thankfully, this one did a pretty good job behaving. Models had showed it swinging east after moving into western KY but that never happened. I never did understand why the models thought that low would do that. There was no reason for that. In the end, it kept trucking northward and that means a lot of the leftover moisture has left with it.

If you’re disappointed that none of last night’s rain was snow just hold on. We haven’t even started winter yet and we’re already having close calls with snow.

Father north, the rain that we had last night has turned to freezing rain and ice storm warnings have been issued. Thank goodness we didn’t’ have that!

This is a map of the current winter weather advisories (purple) and winter storm warnings (pink). The pink you see for southern Indiana is an ice storm warning. All other pink areas are warnings for heavy snow. The dark blue shading in the Deep South is freeze warnings for tonight. Notice how the winter weather makes a horseshoe pattern around Middle and East TN. Also notice how the major coastal cities of the East Coast are getting missed.

WARN_REG_SOUTHEAST-WINTER

Tropics

All is quiet in the tropics again. I have a feeling the season has come to an end. Still, November 30th is the last day of hurricane season.

Records

There’s something about November 15, folks. Perhaps the Ides of November are far more concerning than the Ides of March, as far as meteorology is concerned!

First, the snow record from 1900. It was on this day that 45 inches of snow fell in Watertown, New York in 24 hours! That’s almost four feet of snow in one day! They ended up with a total of 49 inches of snow, just one inch over the four feet mark.

On this day in 1967, folks in Boston were left sitting in paralyzed traffic at rush hour. A surprise, very light, snow/freezing drizzle mix left roadways completely undriveable.

Then, there’s the severe weather on this day!

In 1987, November 15th brought nearly two dozen tornadoes to Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. Over a two-day period, nearly 50 tornadoes hit the South! Twelve people lost their lives and a whopping 303 people were injured. Galveston, TX had a wind gust to 102 mph and Bay City had a gust to 110 mph.

The next year, on the same day (Nov 15), another severe weather outbreak produced 44 tornadoes across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri. Five people were killed and millions of dollars in damages was left behind by the storms.

The next year, on the same day, yet another severe weather outbreak hit our country. A powerful cold front moved into the Middle Mississippi Valley and produced numerous tornadoes and hail three inches in diameter! A violent tornado hit Huntsville, AL and they still talk about it. Severe weather extended all the way to New England, where 14 tornadoes caused extensive damage and loss of life. This is one of the most extensive severe weather outbreaks I have ever seen in the records.

In 2005, Tennessee was hit hard by tornadoes. Henry County, in West TN, was hit especially hard, with numerous businesses and homes completely destroyed. Some of the same areas are under an inch of snow today. Middle Tennessee was hit hard, too, by these tornadoes. In fact, this was the fourth largest tornado outbreak ever to strike Middle Tennessee.

Whew…remind me to hold my breath for November 15th from now on!

Almanac

Notice our high was at 10:27 last night.

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News

A lot of folks got a very early-season snow last night. St. Louis was having to search their records to see when they’ve ever gotten several inches of snow this early in the season. One of my relatives lives in western Kentucky, near the TN/KY border of West TN, and she woke up to this….

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She also had this to share on Facebook…

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The system is moving into the Northeast today, bringing a variety of winter weather. The White House is getting snow right now. This was just shared on Facebook.

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You all have a great day. We’re now down to 34 degrees. I’ll keep you posted on any snowflake sightings I might see!

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