A big warming trend!

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Main Threats

Saturday: the possibility of a strong storm or two. Main threat should stay south and west of the Cumberland Plateau.

Summary

We are about 20 degrees warmer this morning than we were this time yesterday!

We have some precip moving onto the plateau this morning, but temps have warmed to the mid 30s. Never  the less, we could still see some sleet pellets bouncing around. I don’t think there will be any problems but don’t be surprised if you see some sleet through mid-morning.

By noon, we will have warmed to near 40 degrees under cloudy skies. Isolated showers and sprinkles will still be around. A better chance of light rain comes tonight. Temps will stay well above freezing tonight, so there will be no wintry worries at all.

Friday and Saturday look wet. We could still see some strong storms around the plateau on Saturday, but the main severe weather threat should stay well to our west and south.

Sunday looks fantastic! Highs in the mid 60s with partly cloudy skies! Make sure you plan on getting outside. We know that kind of weather gets harder to find the deeper into winter we get.

Discussion

The Storm Prediction Center has now outlined portions of Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana in an enhanced risk for severe storms for tomorrow (see map below). The slight risk encircles that enhanced area. An outbreak of severe storms there will bring the risk for large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The wind shear and instability are looking to really line up over those folks tomorrow. That threat will shift eastward Friday night/Saturday. Thankfully for us, the main energy aloft will shift north, while the most unstable air slides east. Since instability and shear will become out of touch with each other, the severe weather threat will decrease a lot on Saturday. Still, we can’t rule out some strong storms in Tennessee, especially west of the plateau.

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The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of West and Middle TN in the marginal risk for severe storms for Saturday. That outlook does not include the Cumberland Plateau, though it is right on our doorstep. Therefore, we will need to be aware that any storm we get Saturday could be on the strong side.

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Records

If you think it’s been cold here lately you should have been here on this day in 1955! It was on this morning that Crossville set the all-time record low for the month of November when we bottomed out at five degrees! Yikes! That is cold! I got a chill just typing this.

And then I came across this record….

On this day in 1896 the town of Havre, Montana plunged to 51 degrees BELOW zero! Lord have mercy….that is COLD! That cold spell would last a staggering two weeks. An area of high pressure, similar to high pressure cells observed over Siberia in the winter, became stationary over western Canada. The result was some of the coldest November weather on record for numerous locations across our northern Plains.

This date also holds the claim as the day Bismarck, North Dakota set their all-time record low for November. Residents of that frozen city woke up to a temperature of 30 below zero on the morning of November 29, 1985. Their high temperature only got to four below zero that day!

We may complain about our cold weather but the folks across the northern Plains have us so beat! I guess we aught to keep quiet about our weather, right? ha

Almanac

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Sunrise: 6:32

Sunset: 4:28

Day length: 9 hr 56 min

This Time Last Year

This time last year we had a very warm day! The high temp in Crossville hit 65 degrees! That sounds pretty good, right? The morning low was only 36 degrees. There was no precipitation and the maximum wind gusts was a whopping 8 mph (ha).

News

I took this pics as I headed out the door to work this morning. Red sky in the morning, sailor’s warning, right? (ha) I don’t think these skies are forewarning of anything but a few showers and possible morning sleet pellets.

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WeatherTAP has a Facebook follower who was kind enough to send me some pics of his New Hampshire home yesterday. That area of the country was slammed with a very heavy, wet snow this week. He said he has now gone 18 hours without power. The snow was very beautiful but very destructive. This is not a good start to the winter for them. They often go months with snowpack on the ground before the spring thaw moves in. These are the pics Gene Bank of New Hampshire to sent me.

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You know, I thought these pics would make me want snow more but they kinda didn’t. I love snow, don’t get me wrong, but I’m not a fan of the power outages and damage that snows like this bring. I turn into a big whiny baby within minutes of a power outage. I’d like to think I’m a man who can “rough it” but there ain’t no sense in lying (ha).

You all have a great day and be thankful we’re not below zero or buried under a huge snow this morning!

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