Evening update

Temps are slowly falling across the plateau this evening. I have 18 deg here at my house in Rinnie. Temps should continue to slowly fall this evening, bottoming out around 15 deg or so.

Overall, my forecast reasoning hasn’t changed much since the last update.

One thing that I am leaning toward changing is the timing of the system moving in. It looks to me like most of us won’t see any kind of precip before daybreak Saturday. The precip will move in from the southwest, with folks near Sparta getting it first and folks up around Jamestown being last. This is something I’ll keep watching but don’t be surprised if tomorrow’s forecast takes the precip away from Friday night.

A later-in-the-day system would mean a better chance to warm up a bit and would limit the wintry stuff, so timing is a big deal. Still, there’s nothing worse than telling folks the precip won’t be here until 9:00 a.m., only to have it move in at 6:00. Nobody wants to see that kind of a miss.

It still looks like we have a good shot at some snow Sunday night. Keep your fingers crossed, snowbirds.

A few of you have asked about info you have seen on other sites advertising a huge snow or devastating ice storm for this weekend. The rest of you know how those posts irritate me (lol). There are no strong indications of either of those things. Believe me, I’d tell you if I thought that was the most likely scenario. The best chance of accumulating wintry precip would be Sunday night and that would be snow. If I had to go out on a limb (and this is a long, shaky limb!) I’d say we could get 2-4 inches of snow Sunday night. So, not a devastating blizzard but we could get a few inches IF everything comes together right.

There’ll be even more data available tomorrow and I’ll be looking it over as soon as it all rolls in. And, of course, I’ll keep you posted!

So, the “safe” forecast would go like this…… light wintry mix Saturday morning that will transition to a cold rain (or rain/snow mix) for the afternoon and evening. Rain may mix with snow at times Saturday night, with little or no accumulation. Rain gradually transitions back to snow by Sunday night. By Monday morning, we could be looking at some snow accumulation across the plateau. That snow would taper off by Monday night.

Stay tuned. One degree of difference is all it will take to change this whole forecast. Why do we always have to be right on the line? Why?! (ha)

 

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