Weekend winter wx update. My thoughts at this hour.

I wanted to see another dose of model data before updating you all but it’s being really slow about coming in. That’s ok. I have a lot of other data that I’ve been looking at and I’m feeling more confident about certain parts of the forecast. Here’s where things stand at this time….

I think we’ll see clouds increase during the day Friday and skies will be mostly cloudy by Friday evening. It will be a cold day, with highs in the 30s. Friday night temps drop to around 28-30 and light precip begins to develop after midnight.  Precip may not even start until after daybreak Saturday, but I think we’ll be getting something by mid-morning Saturday. The precip begins as light snow and sleet.

My confidence in this part of the forecast is at about 70%.

That snow and sleet should continue through noon. I think we could get a dusting to 1/2 inch from this snow/sleet before a transition begins to take place. This transition could be a messy one, as we go from snow/sleet to freezing rain/sleet, to cold rain/sleet. How long will this transition take place for? That’s a darn good question. I think we could pick up a glaze of ice before a transition to cold rain takes place.

My confidence in this part of the forecast is at about 50%.

Here’s the really tricky part…warm air will try to work in Saturday afternoon and that should (should) change our wintry mix to cold rain. This would be in time for the parade. If we already have a good coating of snow and sleet on the ground this transition could be slower to occur. That would not bode well for us.

Rain continues through the night, as temps hover around the low to mid 30s.

Confidence in this part is at about 30%.

Cold air will begin working back in here on Sunday and the cold rain/mix will transition back to snow. That snow continues Sunday night, with accumulating snowfall certainly looking possible. In fact, we may see some heavy snow at times Sunday night.

Confidence in this part of the forecast is at about 80%. 

Please stay tuned to this forecast, as it is a tricky one and precip types and intensities are subject to change.

Travel Impacts

Late Friday night/Saturday morning: snow/sleet creating slick roads

Saturday morning-noon: wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain (all light but dangerous)

Sunday night: snow making travel hazardous

More data will be coming in this evening and that will help make things even clearer. Note that in the forecast above my confidence is lowest concerning the switch from a mix to cold rain on Saturday. Folks, that is a tricky call and it’s possible we never get out of that mix. I think the greatest threat of that will be across Fentress, Overton and Pickett Counties. The longer that mix lasts, the more ice that will accumulate.

Stay tuned. I’ll update again later this evening (by 9:00 pm).

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