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Wintry mischief, indeed

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Main Threats

Today: slick spots from snow showers

Saturday-Sunday: possible wintry weather that could impact travel (stay tuned)

Summary

We have more snow showers and snow flurries on tap for the first half of our Wednesday. We could see another dusting or so of accumulation. This morning, the bulk of the accumulation seems to be confined to the north end of the county. I had about a quarter of an inch at my house and the back roads are completely snow covered. Highway 127 was clear until I got to Woody, and then it was snow covered as well (~7:00 a.m.). So, be careful if you’re out and about. Schools are cancelled or delayed across the plateau for today. I have my snow pics at the bottom of this blog post!

On Thursday we’ll see clouds move in from our next storm system. This system is also weak and moisture starved but we could see some more flurries Thursday night/Friday morning. That will lead us into a cloudy day Friday and clouds from our next storm system will begin moving in during the evening. Don’t be looking for too much sun this week!

That’s when the forecast headaches begin…..

It looks like we could see a wintry mix move in late Friday night/Saturday morning. Indications are that the system will be slower to move in than I expected yesterday and precip may hold off all the way until Saturday morning. I think that precip will start out as a wintry mix of snow and sleet, perhaps even some freezing rain. That should change over to a cold rain during the afternoon and that cold rain should persist all Saturday night, with temps holding in the mid 30s (yuck, right?).

On Sunday, cold air starts swinging back and in and we should see a transition back to snow. At this time, accumulation of snowfall looks quite possible and I’d expect an inch or two, at least. Stay tuned.

Discussion

This weekend storm is causing a lot of forecasting woes (ha). Winter storm watches are currently being issued for portions of Texas and Oklahoma. That will be the system we have to watch very, very closely. Our temps will likely be just warm enough to give us cold rain, but it’s way to close to call.

WARN_NAT_WINTER

If I were to make a “safe” forecast, or one I feel is most likely to occur, I’d tell you to expect the precip to start out as a wintry mix Saturday morning. That mix would include snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. That would then transition to a cold rain by the afternoon and continue through the night. By Sunday, we should see a transition to snow take place, with some light accumulation possible by evening.

The “high risk” forecast, or one I feel is most improbable, is one in which I would tell you to expect the precip to start as snow Friday night, with light accumulation. That would then transition to a wintry mix during the day Saturday and stay a mix all night. Then that would transition to snow, with more snow accumulation by Sunday evening.

Both scenarios are possible, but the “safe” scenario is the most likely…..as far as things look right now.

We have to watch two main features. The first is an area of high pressure that will move into the Ohio Valley behind the cold front that moves through here Thursday night. Will that high be strong enough to bring enough cold air down here to give us all wintry precip? Or, will it be just strong enough to keep us guessing all the way to the end?

The second feature to watch is the Gulf low that will be developing. Where will it track, exactly? This is key to determining our precip types and amounts. If it tracks north of the coast we get just enough warm air to be mostly cold rain. If it hugs the coast or tracks just south of the coast, we get snow and ice. As more data comes in today, we’ll begin to know a lot more about what to expect. Again, as things stand right now, I’d put the most money on that “safe” forecast I gave you above. Stay tuned. Please pay attention to this forecast. I’ll give updates through the day and on up until we are finished with this storm.

If you have travel plans for this weekend, be prepared to change those. If you have any plans on the plateau this weekend, be prepared to alter those plans. As for the parade….if I had to make a forecast right now I’d say expect a cold rain, with temps in the mid 30s.

I saw a NWS graphic yesterday that really does a good job explaining precip types and temperatures. One degree, folks, is all the difference between disaster and nothing. One degree.

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Records

We weren’t worried about snow and ice 41 years ago today! It was a stormy day on the plateau on this day in 1977. A severe thunderstorm struck Putnam County with baseball-sized hail. That’s not the kind of ice you expect to see this time of year!

A historic and incredible snowstorm hit the Southeast 132 years ago today. The 1886 storm dropped 11 inches of snow on Montgomery, Alabama, 18.5 inches at Rome, Georgia, and a whopping 22.5 inches on Knoxville, TN. Folks, THAT’S what I’m talking about! (ha) Can you imagine a storm like that hitting today? Big snows are certainly possible this time of year!

But, we’re also on the tail-end of our secondary fall severe weather season, especially for folks in the Deep South. On this day in 1953, a killer violent tornado struck Vicksburg, Mississippi. The twister took the lives of 38 people and injured nearly 300. The storm’s 25 million dollars worth of the damage was said to have been the worst thing that happened to the city since it endured 47 days of continuous shelling during the Civil War.

Almanac

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Sunrise: 6:36

Sunset: 4:25

Yesterday’s daylight length: 9 hr 50 min

Today’s Daylight length: 9 hr 49 min

Tomorrow’s daylight length: 9 hr 48 min

One Year Ago Today

A year ago we were 56 degrees. Our morning low was right at the freezing mark; 32 degrees. We fell just shy of recording an inch of rainfall, with 0.9 inches being recorded at the airport. The maximum wind gust was 20 mph.

News

I GOT SNOW AT MY HOUSE!!! My snow dance works! Look out, ladies and gentlemen, it’s going to be long, snowy winter. The only hope you snow haters have is me losing my snow dancing shoes! LOL

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This was the road! It was slick, too!

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You all have a great day! I’ll keep you posted on our weekend storm!

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