Evening update

The forecast for tonight is still on track. Look for cloudy skies and scattered flurries. This cold front is really moisture starved, so I don’t think we have anything to worry about tonight. This front, however, will play a role in our complicated weekend forecast.

The front will stall across the Deep South. Then, a developing storm system off the coast of Texas will send moisture up and over this shallow, cold air mass. The result could be light wintry precip on Saturday.

It still looks like there could be some slick spots for at least the first half of the day Saturday. It also still looks like we’ll be seeing a light, cold rain Saturday afternoon and evening. It’s in the overnight hours that things get tricky again.

So, the bottom line is that, as of now, I don’t think we have a lot to worry about for Saturday UNLESS you’re on the road before noon. In other words, we won’t see enough precip to cause power outages, etc. but we will see enough to cause some travel issues.

During the night Saturday, temps should hold in the 33-35 degree range across most of the plateau. That gives us a cold rain. The only exception is for you folks in a line from Livingston to Jamestown to Oneida and all points north. If I were you all I would prepare for icing. That icing could lead to power outages and major travel issues.

For the rest of us, if the track of the low shifts a few tens of miles farther south that will put a much larger portion of the Cumberland Plateau in ice for Saturday night. That scenario is unlikely, but not completely impossible.

Then, colder air moves in Sunday and that will (at some point) change the rain to snow. That snow will continue into Monday with light accumulation looking likely. If things line up just right, we could be looking at a few inches of accumulation. Stay tuned.

So, with all the buzz about wintry weather flying around, the NWS Nashville put together this graphic and verbiage.

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“A winter storm watch is issued usually 24-48 hours before the onset of the storm. It is issued when there is at least medium confidence that snow, sleet, freezing rain, or a combination of those will cause significant impacts to the area.

A winter storm warning is issued usually 12-36 hours prior to the storm. It is issued when confidence is high that wintry precipitation will cause significant impacts.

A winter weather advisory is issued 12-36 hours prior to the onset of the precipitation. It is issued when confidence is high that precipitation will cause minor impacts including light ice accumulations and some slick roads.”

I hope you all have a great evening. I will have a full update, with all the newest data, in the morning!

Currently, winter storm watches are in effect for  portions of the southern Plains. Now, watches have been issued for parts of the Carolinas. I expect to see the watches out west upgraded to warnings in the morning. Winter weather advisories are in effect for those counties in New Mexico.

WARN_NAT_WINTER

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