The calm….

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Main threats

Tuesday morning: TRAVEL IMPACT*: HIGH (snow)

TREES/POWERLINE IMPACT: LOW (snow)

Thursday morning: COLD: Bitter cold temperatures. Remember, PEOPLE, PETS, AND PIPES.

Wednesday morning: TRAVEL IMPACT: MEDIUM (refreezing and chance of light snow)

Friday: TRAVEL IMPACT: LOW (watching for mixed precip)

Impacts are ranked by low, medium, and high

Summary

For today, look for mild temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and breezy winds. It is the calm before our next storm system, which will be arriving tonight. Precipitation will begin as light rain after dark. As colder air works its way into our neck of the woods after midnight, the precipitation will begin transitioning to light snow. By Tuesday morning, the plateau will be white.

Total snowfall accumulations should average two inches area-wide, with some isolated locations picking up as much as three inches. This is expected to be a dry, powdery snow, so impacts to trees and powerlines should not be a problem at all. The greatest impact should be to roads.

A winter weather advisory goes into effect at midnight tonight and expires at noon Tuesday.

The precip should be over with by noon, allowing for improved travel conditions. Dry snow is usually easier to remove from roadways, so the main roads should be in better shape by the afternoon. Never the less, please be careful if you have to be out and about. If you work second shift jobs you should be alright just taking it easy to get to work. Be mindful of refreezing when you get off work later in the evening.

We have another front moving in that could kick off some more light snow showers Wednesday morning. Accumulation should stay under an inch but that could be enough to re-coat some roadways. Stay tuned on details of this system, as the forecast could change.

Thursday looks pretty good, before the next system arrives Friday. More details on that as we get closer to that time.

Please make sure you are prepared for the bitter cold temperatures that are coming. Check on the people in your life and make sure they have heat. Make sure outdoor pets have a warm place to shelter, and make sure your pipes don’t freeze. Remember to leave the spigot dripping and to make sure your pipes are protected from the cold. With lows dipping down to around zero, we have to be careful.

Discussion

With new data, the NWS Nashville has now dropped Nashville and Lebanon from the winter weather advisory. The advisory now just mainly includes the plateau and the southern third of Middle Tennessee. If you have travel plans that take you west tomorrow, you should be in good shape once you get west of Carthage.

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The winter storm watch has been cancelled for East TN and downgraded to a winter weather advisory. That was rather expected, as they expressed doubt in their decision to have ever issued a winter storm watch. A winter storm watch is for significant snow and/or ice (<4″), while a winter weather advisory means that just enough snow is expected to impact travel, normally 1-2 inches.

Winter storm warnings are being issued for parts of the Deep South this morning, but their criteria for a winter storm down there is two inches of snow or more. That qualifies as  winter weather advisory around here.

Without a Gulf low bringing up incredible amounts of moisture, I’m always hesitant to forecast significant snowfall. This is an arctic front with an very strong disturbance attached to it. We very rarely get significant snowfall (>4″) from situations like this. More often than not, we can safely expect a couple inches of snow.

Records

Much like today, the state of Tennessee was on the brink of a winter weather event on this day in 1951. A cold front moved through during the afternoon, which began a steady flow of cold, arctic air from the north. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure would begin developing in the Gulf. Be sure and tune in tomorrow to find out what happened the next day…..

It sure was cold on this day in 1963. In fact, Kentucky set their all-time record low at Cynthiana, located just northeast of Lexington. The temperature bottomed out at 34 degrees below zero! Interestingly, this tied the all-time record low for the state set at Bonnieville, just a few miles away and only four days earlier.

Today is also the anniversary of the coldest temperature ever recorded at Nome, Alaska. On this day in 1989 they dropped all the way down to 54 degrees below zero. Other incredible Alaska low temps on this day include Fairwell with -69 and Deadhorse at -49 (bet I know how that horse died! ha). Wind chill readings were up to 114 degrees below zero! That is cold!

Almanac

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Record high: 70 (1975)

Record low: -8 (1961)

Today’s sunset: 5:03

Tomorrow’s sunrise: 6:42

Today’s day length: 10 hrs 20 mins 31 secs

Tomorrow’s day length: 10 hrs 22 mins 17 secs

One year ago today

The weather a year ago today was quite mild, like today, but on this day last year we had light rain and fog reported throughout the day. The high temperature topped out at 52 degrees and, with the rain and fog, stayed around that temperature until a cold front moved through in the evening. By midnight, temps had dropped to 31 degrees, with a north breeze. Just a little over half an inch of rain fell (0.6″).

Astronomy

Sky viewing conditions tonight: POOR

Moon phase: waning crescent, 44% illumination (#8 below)

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With cloudy skies, there will be no sky viewing tonight! Unless you’re looking for snowflakes later! ha

I’ll keep an eye on everything today, so stay tuned! Just be sure you enjoy today’s weather.

3 thoughts on “The calm….

  1. I am in charge of an after school group at North Cumberland. Would you be willing to come talk to our kids about weather and astronomy? We would like to do February 15 from 4:30-6:00pm. Just let me know if you are available. Julia Timson

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