Ain’t nothin’ wrong with my rain dance!

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Main threats

Tonight: Heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding issues, especially on roadways.

Tuesday morning: ponding of water on roadways. Drive safe.

Summary

Well, one thing is for sure, I’ve got the rain dance down pat! Now, if only I could figure out what I’m doing wrong and make this a successful snow dance! Just bear with me as I keep trying! Darn rain……

Clouds and fog will stick with us through the day, as more rain moves our way. That rain could become heavy at times tonight, which could lead to some flooding issues for those flood-prone areas. The NWS Nashville has issued a flood watch that basically covers everyone north of I-40. The NWS Morristown did the same for counties east of us. If you live north of I-40 in Cumberland County, I would just consider myself part of that watch, as well, even though officially you are not (for some strange reason).

I still expect rainfall totals of 1-3 inches across the plateau, with the higher amounts the farther north you live. We have already picked up 0.23″ here in town from Sunday’s rain.

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That rain will continue tomorrow, though it should begin to taper off after the cold front passes during the afternoon. That frontal passage will send temps dropping, returning us to a seasonable temperature regime.

Wednesday and Thursday are looking pretty good. Our next storm system will be gathering strength to our west on Thursday, which will lead to an increase in our clouds. Rain will develop after midnight and continue through the day Friday. We may even hear some rumbles of thunder. If there’s enough moisture left over when the cold air arrives, we could see some snow flurries late Friday night and into Saturday morning.

So far, the bulk of the weekend is looking partly cloudy and chilly.

Discussion

You all know how I harp on the unreliability of extended outlooks, right? And you all know how unreliable those outlooks are, right? And you know to take them with a great big grain of salt, so to speak, right? If you agree to all those statements I’ll let you in on a little secret. You have to promise not to go crazy about this, ok?

The models are showing accumulating snowfall on us for next Monday night! I know, right!? I’m not talking a little snow either! I’m talking about a Gulf low barreling right at us, while cold air spills in from the north. It would be the perfect scenario for several inches of snow for Tennessee.

I tell you this to give you Snowbirds some hope! Here we are, nearing the middle of February, in what would be the third winter in a row with out a significant snow. It’s just gotta snow! IT’S JUST GOTTA, DADBLASTIT!!!

OK, now go tell all your friends Meteorologist Mark predicts snow next week. NO! Don’t do that. Just stay tuned. There is hope, snowbirds, there is hope…….

p.s. I’ve had some reliable sources (kids) tell me that spreading the word about snow jinxes it. So, shhhhhhhhh…..

Records

The NWS Nashville recorded big snows on this day on two separate years! The first was half a foot of snow on this day in 1895, and the second was 8.8 inches of snow in 1910. Too bad our rain today couldn’t have been snow, right? 🙂

The worst arctic air outbreak in U.S. history began on this day in 1899. Folks in Montana woke up to one their coldest mornings in state history, with temps as low as 61 below zero in places. Meanwhile, a powerful blizzard was raging up the East Coast. This blizzard left snow on the ground from Georgia to Maine. Hard-hit Virginia had 30-40 inches of snow covering their state! That blizzard would help push the arctic air across the northern plains southward, resulting in the coldest airmass to ever penetrate the eastern U.S.

How cold did it get in the South? Find out tomorrow!

Almanac

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Record high: 67 (1999)

Record low: 1 (1981)

Today’s sunset: 5:17

Tomorrow’s sunrise: 6:29

Today’s day length: 10 hrs 47 mins 22 secs

Tomorrow’s day length: 10 hrs 49 mins 26 secs

One year ago today

This day last year got off to a rainy start! Light to heavy rain was reported right up until sunrise, then cloudy and foggy conditions were with us the rest of the day. It was a mild day, reaching 62 degrees for a high during the afternoon. A cold front came through around sunset, and by midnight temps across the plateau had dropped into the mid to upper 30s. Rainfall accumulated to 0.66 inches.

Astronomy

Sky viewing conditions tonight: POOR

Moon phase: waxing crescent, 35% illumination

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The International Space Station (ISS) flies over at 5:39 pm. Being able to see it through the clouds might pose quiet the challenge! (ha) Never the less, just in case we see a break in the clouds, the ISS will be visible for 6 min, have a max height in the sky of 62°,  appear at 10° above the northwest horizon, and disappear at 10° above the southeast horizon.

News

The nation is covered in watches, warnings, and advisories today! It’s an active weather week that will remain very active into next week! I’ll be watching it all, of course! You all have a great day!

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